The New Consumer Economy Is Being Built on Surprises, Not Data
Teen-driven trends are disrupting legacy consumer markets from cinemas to gadgets, forcing brands to rethink how fast and where demand can swing next.
A Minecraft movie was Hollywood’s first big hit of 2025. It’s an adaptation of the block-building video game, and surprisingly low on computer graphics, especially for people of my vintage who prefer lifelike graphics in games.
A screening I attended in Mumbai went off without mishap. But the film has sparked mixed reactions elsewhere, including in the US and UK.
For one, it’s attracting crowds of teenagers. The film grossed $300 million in its first week last month and has since raked in $1.4 billion.
That’s good news because teenagers—and their parents—have been largely avoiding cinema halls, preferring to watch movies at home instead.
The problem, as The Economist pointed out last week, is the rowdy behaviour. Teenagers have been screaming during screenings, throwing drinks in the air, and jumping on their seats in sync with on-screen dialogue.
Cinema hall owners—desperate for crowds to return, including in countries like India—are now wondering how to deal with this mixed blessing.
Last week, I was speaking with Lenovo India’s Managing Director, Shailendra Katyal on The Core Report.
According to him, tablets, which were long sandwiched between PCs and mobile phones (Lenovo also owns Motorola), are now seeing a jump in sales.
The reason? Entertainment. Presumably, this means people are watching more video content on streaming platforms like Netflix and YouTube.
Screens Rise, Consoles Fall
On the other hand, console gaming is slowing down, while PC gaming is picking up, he says.
Elsewhere, The Economist also notes that sneakers, which were all the rage a few years ago, are no longer so. It says queues outside trainer stores are now shorter and less frequent.
Styles of trainers (or sneakers, as they are known outside Britain) that once sold for more than four times their retail price—like limited-edition Air Jordan 1s and chunky Yeezys—are now being offered at discounts.
The magazine adds that online marketplaces in France and the Netherlands have reportedly gone bankrupt, while Sneakersnstuff, a European retailer, filed for bankruptcy in January, citing “a global decline in the limited-edition sneakers market.”
Since 2021, the value of fashion and lifestyle sneaker sales in the US has dropped 5.8% after adjusting for inflation, according to research firm Circana.
And finally, perfumes.
Sales are surging, says another Economist piece.
Fragrance may be the smallest category in the beauty sector, but it’s growing the fastest. McKinsey estimates global sales will hit $106 billion by 2028—up by $30 billion from 2023.
Its growth is expected to outpace that of makeup, haircare, and skincare.
Interestingly, boys spent an average of $110 on fragrance in 2024—up from $75 the year before, and more than the $93 spent by girls, according to The Economist.
So much for the traditional assumptions about who buys perfume.
TikTok has a role to play in many of these shifts, especially with fragrance—spotting trends and amplifying them at a speed few can predict.
From Trends To Habits
Take the case of the Dubai chocolate bar.
Its original name is FIX, and it became a global viral sensation after being sold only in the UAE until three years ago. The founders—a couple based in Dubai—were surprised by the attention when it first came their way, and have struggled to keep up with demand ever since.
It all began with a TikTok video that went viral.
But TikTok or social media may not be the only reason.
And catching a trend may not be simple for brands.
Because some fashion shifts unfold more slowly, influenced by a single trigger or a combination of external factors.
And it’s hard to explain why teenagers suddenly start showing up at movie halls—except to say that game-based films are perhaps better enjoyed in groups, with the added thrill of creating a bit of a ruckus and feeling good about it.
Late To Spot, Fast To Fade
Even that may not offer enough insight to reliably bet on.
Marketers would love to get early signals on such shifts—whether to scale up production or pull back.
As we have seen, it can go both ways.
But the nature of consumerism is constantly changing and becoming increasingly unpredictable.
The fairly boring perfume industry, which had seen no real action for decades, quite likely had no clue that a shift was coming—and that teenagers would suddenly start buying perfumes.
On the other hand, the sneaker industry, busy expanding, had no early insight that consumers would begin to lose interest.
Katyal told me that technology companies tend to offer consumers things they didn’t expect or even know they wanted.
Steve Jobs’ famous quote about wanting to figure out what consumers want before they do rings true here. Essentially: people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.
That’s the only moment when a company truly controls the narrative. The rest of the time, you're simply following the consumer.
Just another thought to keep in mind in an era of tariffs and other uncertainties.
