Markets Need 2 Cues To Turn Around
The markets are now out with a torch searching for cues and mostly they're unable to find any
On Episode 754 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Biswapriya Bhattacharjee, Director, B2B and Technology- South Asia, Kantar as well as Connor Hill, Global Director Circular and Sustainable Living, IKEA.
SHOW NOTES
(01:00) Markets need two cues to turn around, they are not in sight
(02:06) The rupee turns around after the RBI goes on attack mode
(04:12) Let this sink in: Silver is up 128% this year
(05:43) Geopolitical tensions center around Venezuela with US blockades, oil prices rise. The IEW Segment
(08:43) There are over 300 million digital only consumers of media, what does that mean?
(19:00) Youth world over want more recyclable materials, how are companies like IKEA responding to that?
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NOTE: This transcript contains the host's monologue and includes interview transcripts by a machine. Human eyes have gone through the script but there might still be errors in some of the text, so please refer to the audio in case you need to clarify any part. If you want to get in touch regarding any feedback, you can drop us a message on feedback@thecore.in.
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Good morning, it's Thursday, the 18th of December and this is Govindraj Ethiraj broadcasting and streaming weekdays from Mumbai, India's financial capital,
And our top stories and themes…
The markets need two cues to turn around and they're not in sight.
The rupee turns around though after the Reserve Bank of India goes on attack mode.
There are over 300 million digital-only media consumers in India. What does that mean?
Let it sink in. Silver is up 128% this year.
Geopolitical tensions centred around Venezuela with U.S. blockades, oil prices rise, the India Energy Week segment.
And youth world over want more recyclable materials in the products they buy. So how are companies like Ikea responding to that?
The Search Party
The markets are now out with a torch or the proverbial torch searching for cues and mostly they're unable to find any.
There are two key tipping points at least in the near horizon. The first is of course a trade deal with the United States which also does away with a 25% penal tariff on India's imports of oil from Russia. Now that might be a specific problem it appears and we will come to that in our IEW energy segment.
The other is of course foreign portfolio flows which are still outward. Foreign investors have sold something like 1.4 billion dollars in eight sessions till Tuesday and about 1.9 billion dollars in December so far according to Reuters. The Reserve Bank of India was on the attack on Wednesday selling dollars in an effort to lift the rupee which it did succeed but the markets are drifting.
A few weeks ago we were speculating on the possibility of a Santa rally which so far has not happened but then on the brighter side there's still another week to go for Christmas. On Wednesday the benchmarks were lower for the third consecutive session. The Sensex was down 120 points to 84,559.
The Nifty 50 was down 41 points to 25,818. The mid cap and small cap were both down 0.5 and 0.7 each. So the rupee did make some news after the Reserve Bank of India plunged into the market.
The rupee closed about 0.7 percent higher at 90 rupees 37 paise after hitting an all-time low of 91 rupees 8 paise on Tuesday. According to Reuters as many analysts have been pointing out the Reserve Bank is not saying when it will intervene obviously to anticipate or prevent speculative build-up. It also means that the rupee rises more sharply against the dollar as it did on Wednesday when those interventions actually happened.
Having said all of that all eyes are obviously on that trade accord for which there is no linear approach to measuring its progress as it's clearly a political decision rather than an economic one at this point. Meanwhile labour intensive industries are being hit hard and it will be tough for businesses to invest ahead to supply into markets like the US. Speaking of the US on Wall Street stock futures were up on Wednesday morning after the S&P 500 posted a third losing session as investors looked at the latest US economic data.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were also up about 101 points or 0.2 percent according to CNBC. So on that jobs number which we referred to yesterday as well the US Bureau of Labour Statistics released early Tuesday its November job report which included data from October. So that gives a sense on US economic health following a data blackout of sorts caused by the US government shutdown earlier.
The report showed that the US economy had lost about 105,000 jobs in October while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent its highest since September 21. However 64,000 jobs were added in November topping the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 45,000. Now there are a lot of nuances to these jobs reports from what I can see including the fact that many of the jobs lost are government jobs whereas the jobs gained are private jobs or private sector jobs but all of it is either ways confusing to most people from what I can see and that again highlights the challenge of data or good data and the absence of what good data can do to policy making or decision making even from a financial markets point of view.
Silver It Is
Now here's where some data is pretty clear silver prices are continuing to shoot up they went past the $65 announced to record highs on Wednesday while gold too advanced after softer than expected US jobs data which signalled a cooling labour market and that in turn led to bets on more interest rate according to Reuters. So in a way it's back to betting on interest rate cuts though what these cuts will do is not very clear maybe it'll help more hyperscalers borrow more to build giant AI data centres for the rest consumer demand would matter more than cost of capital it would appear to me at least at this point.
Silver was up about three and a half percent to $65.90 announced after touching an all-time high of $66.50 on Wednesday. Now there are two factors driving it one is of course industrial demand which we've talked about and the second is speculative interest analysts told Reuters that silver has become an object of speculation within the options market and fundamentally they believe it's based on some clear views that demand is going to be strong they also point out that it's a critical mineral it's part of the green energy programme and it's also tight in every sense that supply dynamics are tight. Gold prices were also up slightly spot gold rose about 0.4% to $4,318 per ounce on Wednesday morning now the bottom line number is of course this silver is up 128% this year and gold has risen about 65% year to date
The India Energy Week Segment
And there are other prices that are going up as well this time it's oil which was up 2% on Wednesday thanks to increased geopolitical tensions which have now shifted from the Middle East to the Americas after US President Donald Trump ordered a complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.
Brent crude futures were up about one and a half dollars to $60.30 on Wednesday morning but you have to see where oil prices are which is near five-year lows in the previous session for several reasons including progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks which could free up more oil flows and in the larger context of demand patterns which are not looking very strong or rather weak demand. On Tuesday Trump said that he now regarded Venezuela's rulers as a foreign terrorist organisation and last week the U.S. seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. Elsewhere sticking to energy but moving beyond oil global coal demand reached a record high in 2025 but is expected to decline by 2030 as renewables nuclear power and abundant natural gas squeeze its domination in power generation according to the International Energy Agency on Wednesday reported by Reuters.
Weaning the world of coal is considered vital to achieving global climate targets but the fossil fuel remains the single biggest fuel to make electricity as we can see here too and coal demand is expected to rise half a percent in 2025 to a record 0.8 that's close to 9 billion metric tonnes according to the IEA's coal 2025 report. India's coal use by the way declined for only the third time in five decades thanks to intense monsoons which increased hydropower and depressed electricity demand something we referred to earlier and also a bit of a question mark as to why electricity demand is falling so much and what indeed are all the factors that are influencing it and whether it's linked to growth or not. And finally India's Russian oil imports and we referred to this in the beginning are poised to top the 1 million barrel per day mark in December according to sources who spoke to Reuters.
Now this of course defies the perception that there would be a sharp decline following the US sanctions but refiners have apparently resumed buying from non-sanctioned entities offering deep discounts that's refiners here in India. Now ties between Russia and India are strong despite pressure from those western sanctions and Russian president Vladimir Putin was in India earlier this month and at that time they said that their cooperation would continue and that would obviously extend to oil. December arrivals are likely to exceed 1.2 million barrels per day according to preliminary LSEG trade flow data quoted by Reuters which could rise to an average of 1.5 million barrels per day by the end of the month according to those sources.
How We Consume Media
The number of digital only media audiences is growing rapidly now. Kantar Media Compass for its third quarter 2025 report says digital only users those accessing the internet without watching linear television account for 26 percent of India's 15 plus population translating into 313 million individuals. Now this marks a 30 percent increase from last year and notably these audiences over index among younger consumers and NCCS C stroke DE segments and we'll have an explanation for that coming up with nearly three in four digital only users residing in rural India.
On the other hand linear TV viewership has seen a marginal decline from 705 million in the first quarter of 2025 to 689 million in the third quarter and consumption patterns are becoming increasingly hybrid and if there is a graph there I guess linear TV viewership is gently falling. The number of viewers accessing content across both linear TV and connected TV or CTV as it's called has risen to about 116 million in the third quarter which also grew 17 percent over the first quarter of 2025. The interesting point to note is that rural India continues to play a pivotal role in this shift contributing 49 percent of incremental connected TV viewers according to Kantar.
Now all of this is built on a rolling sample of 87,000 consumers and also that is the report talks about the rising role of digital commerce platforms as access points for millions. I reached out to Biswapriya Bhattacharjee, Director B2B and Technology South Asia at Kantar and I began by asking him to walk us through the top line numbers.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Biswapriya Bhattacharjee: So, if you look at the 313 million-odd internet users who are only on digital and not on any other platform, this is essentially a kind of profile which has grown over the last few years. If I look at in comparison to last year, for example, this number was much smaller at about 243. So, in terms of proportion, therefore, what used to be at 20% of the total population of is today about 26%.
And that's the change that we have seen over the last year or so. So, that's the significance of the change. But what is more important is what lies within this.
So, the question really is that who are these digital-only users, as we call them, right? And what we see when we look at this is that there are two very distinct cohorts as such. There's one cohort, which is urban affluent cohort, who are actually cutting the cord, as they say, moving away from linear television into a CTV universe, using their mobiles a lot more often.
But there is another very interesting cohort that has also emerged, which is rural youth, who are basically never, they have never used a linear television, but they have got into digital and have used and are users of digital only as such. So, that's the interesting aspect that we are seeing as part of this.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And just to see this in context, we say 313 million, and I'm going to come to why that jump is so significant. What are the other buckets of viewership in India?
Biswapriya Bhattacharjee: So, if you look at it in comparison to TV, for example, I'll share in percentage terms for you. The digital overall, right, and I'm talking about overall digital is about 65%, while linear television is 56% of the total population, 15 plus population of India. What is another aspect that is interesting is to contrast vis-a-vis the only digital of 313, the only linear television is about 209 million.
So, effectively, only digital is much higher than only linear television, indicating that there is a shift that is happening from the LTV users to our digital users. Of course, there are a lot of people who are on both, which essentially means that they use both linear television and digital for the purpose of consumption.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And what does this mean from an advertiser's point of view on one end and media companies on the other hand, in terms of how they are stacking up or how they have stacked up their offerings?
Biswapriya Bhattacharjee: I think two or three things. The first is that the media consumption behaviour is changing very rapidly. No longer is it possible for a marketeer to use, say, a one-year or a two-year-old data to do their media planning.
And that's true for media companies as well, media planners as well, and that's the reason why this survey that we do, the Media Compass survey, is done at a quarterly basis. We report numbers at a quarterly basis. So, that's one, the fact that the landscape is changing.
The second, which is very important, is the fact that there are newer formats that are emerging on an everyday basis, and that gives you opportunity to market on those platforms, those formats as well. We are talking about today microdrama, that's emerging as a new format. How do you actually market using microdrama is going to be the new set of rules that would need to be set up for the marketeers.
When it comes to, therefore, the planners as well, it is important for the planners to start looking at things, not at a macro level, but go very micro. So, it's no longer good for us to do a planning at an NCCSA, for example, but you might have to go into youth, NCCSA, gender, and so on, and start seeing how are the differences coming through. Because what we are seeing today is that the differences are not in the macro segments or the cohorts alone, but very significant differences emerge as you go deeper, which otherwise was believed to be very homogeneous as such.
So, NCCS is essentially the socio-economic classification that is used by marketeers to define the consumers. So, the NCCSA is the highest strata of socio-economic profiles of India, while NCCSE is the lowest.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And tell us about what the monetization value is between these worlds. So, for example, if I was reaching, let's say, 600 million viewers or consumers through television, and I could earn this much as now as a media company, if I were to reach 600 million consumers through digital, am I going to make the same amount of money from advertisers or lower, higher?
How does it add up?
Biswapriya Bhattacharjee: Yeah, well, so the first thing to look at is that what is the kind of ad spends that we are seeing and ad spends, if you look at on a year on year is growing at a high single digit number. So, there's definitely more money that is coming into the that marketeers are spending. What is also happening is digital is growing at a much faster pace than linear television is.
Right. So, which basically means that there's a lot more money that is going into digital television. Now, all of these indicate that there is money to be made in digital.
Now, what is happening is if you look at per impression cost versus kind of per second cost in a television, of course, they are going to be very different because of the kind of platforms, etc., the way you target and so on. Right. But what you are actually seeing is a lot more of impressions that are therefore coming in on the digital platform, which is actually helping the agencies and the media players as such to actually continue to earn money on the platforms.
They might have certain negative impacts as well because of the number of impressions that you see at times you feel that you are no longer comfortable looking at ads to the extent that you are in many cases, they may not be as well targeted as you would like them to be and so on and so forth from a consumer standpoint. However, in terms of the total amount of money that is being made, right, the pie is only growing.
Govindraj Ethiraj: One of the things you've highlighted is also that people are spending pretty much their lives around digital commerce platforms and that in turn is influencing many other things.
Biswapriya Bhattacharjee: That's right. So, one of the key things that we are seeing is, of course, not as of now, but even for several years post-pandemic is the growth of the entire of the online shopping world. And today, online shopping is as big as, say, any kind of out of homes segment, for example, and very close to LTV as well at an overall level.
What we are seeing when it comes to the online shopping is the fact that there's a significant growth that we are also seeing with the quick commerce players as such. So, it's not only the traditional online players, but also the quick commerce players where there seems to be a lot of investments that are happening.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Last question, and let me come back to where I was starting, which is that how come there's such a sharp jump in between last year and this year when it comes to this digital consumer cohort?
Biswapriya Bhattacharjee: Well, that's an indication of the fact that there's a lot of pent up need as this reach that is getting impact increased. You are seeing a lot more consumers coming onto the bandwagon of digital as such. As I mentioned to you, there are two segments that we are looking at here.
One segment, which is the affluent, as I said, NCCSA, who are actually cutting the cord, right? But there is other segment who are actually getting into the bandwagon, who would have never had access to a television on a regular basis for all that we know or would never want to do that. And this becomes a personal device.
So, it's an aspiration that you are getting, that is getting addressed through digital with the costs of data being so low as what it is today, the cost of a device being as low as what it is, second hand devices being available. There has been a democratisation of digital today in India. That is what is playing out for all of us.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. Biswa, thank you so much for joining me.
Biswapriya Bhattacharjee: Thank you so much.
The Circular Economy
More survey data but this is different and going a step alongside in terms of what people particularly youth are consuming and we're not talking about media this time. The Inca Group's People and Planet Consumer Insights and Trends 2025 report, Inca is IKEA by the way, conducted with globe scan across 30 countries says two in three people worldwide worry about climate change and eight in ten take some action to reduce their impact. However, many still feel disempowered by cost, lack of clarity on impact and limited support from governments and businesses.
Saving money remains the top motivator for people to take more climate action globally that's 54 percent followed by knowing the impact of their efforts, health benefits and ease of action. So what does all of this mean for companies and brands wherever? Well there is a strong public demand for transparency. Seven in ten people want companies to communicate better about the environmental and social impact of their products and services.
Eight in ten believe businesses should pay living wages across their supply chains. India stands out as a market where youth are not only aware but also actively driving change. In India one-third of youth between 18 and 29 years are taking action on climate change and the majority are engaged in addressing inequality which sets India apart from many global markets according to this report.
The study also shows a strong adoption of circular practises in urban India compared to global repairing furniture instead of buying new choosing products made with recycled materials and the option of renting or leasing furniture reflecting a new generation that values both sustainability and smart consumption. Now this is of course an IKEA survey but let's dive a little deeper and for which I reached out to Connor Hill, Global Director Circular and Sustainable Living at IKEA based out of Sweden and I began by asking him what were the key findings of the latest survey.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Connor Hill: So what we see from our research, the one we did and launched during this last summer, is people are willing to take action around the climate, which is fantastic. But we see and recognise that some clear barriers to that action. And we split into three main areas.
The first one is around lack of understanding and support. And a lot of that is faced at companies as well as government. So we look at ourselves there.
How do we make it as easy as possible for our customers and many others to participate in creating a more circular, more sustainable economy and create sustainable living for the many. So we see ourselves squarely there. And that likely, as you said there, that connects to what our role is there at COP, to work with our competitors, work with government to create long lasting policy targets and commitments to creating a more sustainable society.
But we do that in a much more granular level as well, right down to local policy, which we can touch on. But really, it's like how do big companies policy help the customer, first of all. The second one we're looking at is around cost.
So we cannot make sustainability a premium. And that really connects to our values and our vision of making and siding with the many. So here, one quick example I can give you is we see that plant rich diet is one of the best things individuals can do in their home to reduce their impact.
So one of the actions we've particularly taken is how we make our plant rich offer in our stores the same price or cheaper than our meat options. So that's just one quick example how we're breaking down that cost barrier on a specific level, but we do it across our entire range. And then our last one is actually just around inspiring, enabling and empowering the customer.
So I think we can all maybe think back and sustainability, the actions we take is switching off the lights in our bedroom when we leave them, right. But what we look at project drawdown, that's one action we can take, of course, quite an easy one we can do. But we actually recognise that there's some that have much greater impact than others.
And it's not to say they're all easy. Behaviour change comes into this. But really, what we want to do is help the customer to understand where's their biggest impact.
And then that creates that inspiring, enabling, empowering them to take those actions.
Govindraj Ethiraj: The survey and the Indian context to it, you know, says that a lot of young people would like to, you know, adopt circular practises and their interpretation of that is really repairing furniture instead of buying new, choosing products made with recycled materials or even renting and leasing furniture, just take furniture, which in any case is a large part of IKEA. How does that come together with business purpose and business objective?
Connor Hill: So what we see is the whole circular economy has been part of our DNA for many, many years, going all the way back to our foundation. Around not shipping big, bulky goods around the world, it's around flat pack, so not shipping air around. So we have circular economy being resource smart in our DNA.
And then how we bring that to the customer today with our circular strategy is looking at, yes, we sell new products. But in order to reach the many, we recognise one way we can do that is by buying back our products from our customers after they've used them for many years. Life changes.
Not everyone needs a cot for many years. They use it for a certain period of time and then they need to pass it on. So we have a buyback programme in our stores globally.
And with that, when we receive that product back, we give the customer a voucher and then we use that product and we sell it secondhand in our stores. So that is one of the newer initiatives that we've been running for around five plus years now. And that is one of the ways that we help the customer to participate in the circular economy through our secondhand offer.
We've got many other services, but that is one of our main ones that we're really pushing forward today.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. If I were to stick to the youth segment, again, the study says one third of youth aged 18 to 29 are taking action on climate change. A majority are engaged in addressing inequality.
And this seems to be a little distinctive for India. But my larger question is, is the youth self-influenced on this issue? Is it because they see something?
I mean, are you looking at, for example, what is really driving their thinking or their thought process, which in turn will obviously blow back or flow back into the way they consume and what they consume?
Connor Hill: So we see different trends across the world, depending on which market it is. And in some markets, particularly in Europe, vintage buying secondhand fashion is becoming the default now, because people see one from their affordability, the sustainability. So that's just becoming the norm in fashion for a lot now, which is fantastic.
And others, it's coming from more of a point of frugality. So again, connects to their affordability. Sometimes it's also the accessibility.
They don't live beside big stores anymore. And actually buying secondhand is actually closer to them and quicker available. So we do see a mix around the world here.
But overall, we see a good trend that people are wanting to participate more in the circular economy through different lenses.
Govindraj Ethiraj: You know, a lot of companies may want to participate in the circular economy in some way or the other, and may not be able to because either they have formed the strategy or they are still not sure at what point their product or service meets the customer. What would you tell them?
Connor Hill: So if they're creating a physical product for the customer, one of the biggest impact areas they can start with would be looking at the design of the product from the start. You know, what materials are going into that product? How much recycled content can they get into there?
And then think about how they design it specifically. So how can they design it in a way that's timeless, durable, really good quality? Maybe it's repairable.
Maybe at the end of its life, many, many years later, it could even be recycled to make new materials for new products again and again. So there's a couple of different levels to that really depends on the industry, the way the customer uses the product. But starting with the materials and the design is critical.
Govindraj Ethiraj: You know, as you look ahead, I mean, this is from your vantage point as well. Are you feeling optimistic about the pace of change in terms of sustainability and adoption of sustainability, not just by the youth, but by everyone?
Connor Hill: I think if we look overall globally, and we look at the trend here, where we look at the global recycling rates, we are too low a number. We're less than 10%. So we need to look at how we shift that.
So more materials are having a second and a third life over and over again. So we look at that and we say that we've got a role to play there from the products and the services that we offer to ensure that our products last a really long time. And we have got circular services to prolong them as much as possible.
And at the very end of their life, they can be recycled. But we cannot do this alone. We have to work with our competitors and policymakers to drive this.
And one quick example of that is the extended producer responsibility legislation. And for us, it's really important that this is harmonised across as many markets as possible. And really what EPR, extended producer responsibility is, it's a levy or a tax, you could say, that's placed on the producer to fund the recycling of that product way down the line, even reuse and repair as well.
But that is going to be fundamental for creating a circular economy. And we really push for that beyond just us, but also with legislators.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right, last question. So you've also created courses with universities like Cambridge and University of Arts London in teaching students or imparting knowledge to students about how they could be part of this circular economy and perhaps drive it. Once again, if you were to, let's say if I were an academic or if I were part of a large educational institution, I said, what is the one thing that I can do to inject either a course or a learning module into my institution to teach people?
So what's the one or two things I should be doing or could be doing?
Connor Hill: Yeah, so maybe I'd take a slightly different angle on this one. The circular economy, the answer I gave before, it's around materials and design. I think that knowledge is there.
It's more around the availability of recycled materials and the manufacturing techniques. So I'd say that's there. What I think there's a quite a big opportunity in is really understanding behaviour science.
So how do we really crack the code on helping the customer to repair a product rather than buy new? How do we help them to look at secondhand as an opportunity? How do we help them to, we have this fantastic collection called our EVAR collection.
It's a pine collection. And with that, people can paint it, refresh it, varnish it. So how do we actually engage people, inspire them, enable them to participate in these sorts of actions?
I think that behaviour science part is critical for the circular economy. And so that would be one area that I think is a good opportunity for academics.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. That's a good note to end on, Connor. Thank you so much for joining me.
Connor Hill: Thank you.
