Normally, the line outside the UAE embassy in Delhi is long, and stretches all the way to the main road.

But these days, there are a lot fewer people.

That’s because the US-Israel war on Iran has been impacting Gulf countries like the UAE too. Flights there are getting cancelled and there’s just a lot more uncertainty.

I spoke to Gopal Kanojia, who told me that his flight to Dubai on March 9th got cancelled. Now, he said that he’s going to wait for a month or so, till things calm down.

But recruitment agents say that they are seeing business as usual. Only a small dip.

That’s because migrants feel they don’t really have a choice, said one agent.

Indeed, Gopal told me that he earns just Rs 10-15,000 a month. But in Dubai, he earns Rs 40,000 working at the laundromat. And that too, without food and shelter, which are taken care of.

So how has the Iran war impacted migration, if at all? To learn more and to hear from migrants and experts, check out the latest episode of The Signal Brief.

The Core produces The Signal Brief. Follow us wherever you get your favourite podcasts.

NOTE: A machine transcribed this episode. A human has looked at this text but there might still be errors. Please refer to the audio above, if you need to clarify something. If you want to give us feedback, please write to us at feedback@thecore.in.

TRANSCRIPT:

Kudrat (Host): I’m outside the UAE embassy’s consular section in Vasant Kunj..this is where visa applicants come to submit their documents. It’s a dusty, crowded area filled with mechanic shops.

Normally, this place buzzes with hundreds of visa applicants clutching plastic folders containing passports and other documents.

Today, it’s eerily empty. Almost no one’s around… except a couple people.

One of them is Girish Kanojia.

Girish is 35, dressed in a black shirt and brown pants.

The guard just told him to come back on Monday.

He’s applying to join his uncle and brother-in-law in Dubai, where they work at a laundromat.

His brother-in-law, Gopal, flew back to India earlier this year and is here helping.

Gopal tells me that had a ticket to return on March 9th, but the flight got canceled.

Gopal:     जंग के बारे में हमारा 9 तारीख का फ्लाइट था। फ्लाइट कैंसल हो गई। बोले कि अभी थोड़ा दिक्कत है, इसलिए नहीं आने का। अभी हमारा 2 महीना बीजा बचा है। इसके बाद 2 महीने बाद फिर अगर ठंडा आएगा मौसम, तो इसके बाद जाएँगे, नहीं तो नहीं जाएँगे।

तो इधर अभी क्या कर रहे हैं? अभी तो कुछ नहीं कर रहे हैं। फिलहाल यहाँ पे आए थे स्टंपिंग करवाने के लिए। हमारे अरव भेजे थे इन सब को बीजा का। तो इसलिए स्टंपिंग कराने के लिए आए थे। अब नहीं हो रहा है, फिर वापस जाएँगे। फिर सोमवार को आएँगे।

Kudrat (Host): The war he’s referring to is the currently ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. Reports suggest that over three thousand people have died, mostly in Iran and Lebanon.

This conflict has not only affected West Asia, but has also had ripple effects across the globe. Including thousands of miles away, here in India.

At home, we’re seeing shortages of LPG, affecting households and commercial establishments.

Yet while media covers fuel lines exhaustively, there's been surprisingly little coverage of the war's impact on Indian migrant workers.

Right now, about nine million Indians live in the Gulf, in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, and beyond.

Like Gopal, most of them, roughly 70-80%, work blue-collar jobs, in construction, hospitality, driving, domestic work, and labor-intensive sectors.

The rest are skilled professionals—nurses, engineers, consultants—drawn by tax-free salaries and glittering career paths.

The Gulf has long presented opportunity: remittances from the region have transformed entire towns in India. They’ve helped people repay loans, educate their kids, build multistorey homes.

Now, with this escalating war, that long-standing Gulf dream is suddenly under threat.

Kudrat (Host): My name is Kudrat Wadhwa and you’re listening to The Signal Brief. We don’t do hot takes. Instead we bring you deep dives into the how and why of consumer trends.

Today we’re asking: Will the West Asia conflict stop Indians from chasing the Gulf dream?

Kudrat (Host): Since the 1970s oil boom, Gulf states needed millions of workers to transform deserts into modern cities.

Indians—mostly from Kerala, Tamil Nadu, UP, Bihar—filled the gap: constructing skyscrapers, highways, airports, and even Dubai's iconic skyline.

In return, Gulf jobs offered Indians massive wage jumps, often 5-10x of home pay, and that too, usually tax-free.

Migrants sent earnings home as remittances: a lifeline for families repaying debts, funding education, building homes, and boosting local economies.

In FY25, India received a record ~136 billion USD in total remittances, with Gulf countries contributing ~38% of it.

This mutual exchange—Gulf growth powered by Indian hands, Indian families lifted by Gulf earnings—has endured for decades.

Kudrat (Host): But now, with war disrupting the region, this vital flow faces real risks.

This war is officially between the US, Israel, and Iran.

But GCC countries—that’s Gulf Cooperation Council members—host several major US bases, making them targets.

Iran has warned it can't reach the US mainland, so these bases are the closest proxies. Since February 28, when US-Israeli missiles killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran has attacked the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia, the Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE and the US Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. These attacks haven’t caused casualties yet, but have rattled the region.

Most Gulf countries have tight laws on information, so we don't have full details either.

T, a 25-year from Kerala, who works in finance in Dubai says that people in the city can’t even record any attacks on their phone. He didn’t want to share his name for fear of repercussions.

T:  If you are walking in the street nowadays, some guys will call you and check your phone. They will be like from the police or CIDs or something. And if they find any videos, any photos, anything in your gallery about the recent conflict, like reception or a missile going on, a drone going on, anything in your gallery, you might have not recorded it. Someone shared it with you. You might not have, like, someone WhatsApped it to you, and it might be in your gallery. You might have not even seen it. You'll get a fine of like a hundred thousand. You have to imagine.

Uh, I have said to you, my salary for a month is 5,000. The fine for such a thing is a hundred thousand. It would be around my two-year salary without any savings.

Kudrat (Host): Because of this atmosphere of fear, many migrants in the Gulf are now very hesitant to speak openly.

To better understand the real consequences of this war on Indian migrants, I reached out to Prof S Irudaya Rajan, chair of the International Institute of Migration in Kerala.

He's studied Indian out-migration for decades and compares this to the 2008 global financial crisis and COVID—but potentially worse if it drags on.

Prof Rajan:  This, uh, led to the impact, will be likely to be more than the COVID-19 crisis. I think this is, uh, we are now underestimating. But I personally feel that the impact will be, um, not even similar. It'll be much more than the COVID-19 crisis.

So now, what are the ways it is going to affect? I think there will be, slowly, there will be already, there are repatriations happening. People started coming in, and people are not able to go. So you have a two-way process. Both are stopped.

Many people who wanted to join back work, visa to go to things, that all the flights were canceled several times. The flight went and came back. Now people don't want to go. So I think, but what they will do here, that's another big question mark.

Kudrat (Host): The economic impact, he says, could be massive too.

Prof Rajan: We talk about 125 plus billion dollars. Even a 10% decline due to the war, 10% say it is sub-$10 billion, that will have a huge impact. Not to India as a whole, but the families which are receiving remittances. And this is something very, very important.

And Kerala, for example, as per our earlier study in 2023, Kerala was receiving 200,000 crores, 200,000 crores plus. Assuming 50,000 crores are less in 2026, it'll have a huge implication on the family, implication on the children's education, implication on schooling, implication on construction.

The whole construction industry in India will be affected because many people invest their money in housing. A lot of investment people make on housing, gold, and land. So it'll have a lot of what we call them ripple effects in countries of origin.

Kudrat (Host): Prof Rajan lays out the high stakes clearly—if the war drags on, families back home could lose billions in remittances.

T, who we heard from earlier, says he’s worried about remittances too.

T:  So this is the time of year when the market used to have a really good time now because everyone will be purchasing clothes, things, food, and everything. But I don't know what's happening there.

Like, I'm seeing the first day of the conflict, the effect was seen in the areas surrounding the airports, the key airports in Kerala, because there were vegetables, for export, to be sent to GCC, and that was offloaded and sent to the local market for a discount. So the first day itself, it can be seen.

So, like, the last month's salary was sent back to Kerala, I mean back home, by everyone. So people are not still understanding the situation. Maybe next month, when salaries are delayed, not much remittance has been sent back to Kerala, people will come to realization.

Like for Malabar, the North Kerala, the LPG issue is not going to be the biggest issue. It's not going to be the issue once the remittance is hit…

Kudrat (Host): The impact of a remittance break will reveal itself in the next few months.

But what’s going on right now for aspiring migrants? Are people still applying, still boarding flights despite the headlines?

To find out, I reached out to recruitment agents in Delhi—these people handle visas, flights, and job placements for hundreds of Gulf-bound workers.

One of them told me they have no work right now. Because of the war, and also because of Ramzan, no one’s going to the Gulf.

Others, though, said they’re seeing business as usual, for the most part.

Hem of Al Arabia Consultancy told me they’re still operating at 80% capacity. He said fewer people are going because there aren’t as many ongoing flights right now.

I also spoke to a representative of Inlet Jobs.

Clip: लड़के जा रहे हैं, ऐसा नहीं है। जो भी, तो बे होनेस्ट है, लड़के जा रहे हैं। और आप अभी सोशल नेटवर्क में भी आप जाओगे प्लेटफॉर्म पे, तो बहुत सारी एजेंसी जो होती है, जो फ्लाइट कराती है ना, तो अपना एक वीडियो भी डालते हैं।

आपने देखा होगा, बहुत सारे सोशल नेटवर्क साइट पे, हर एजेंसी का जो भी एजेंसी सब सोशल नेटवर्क पे है प्लेटफॉर्म पे, तो वो फ्लाइट का वीडियो भी अपलोड कर रही है कि मेरे बन्दे जा रहे हैं। रूमर हो गया, थोड़ा सा रूमर को कोई नहीं ना सॉल्व कर सकता है तुरंत।

ठीक है, ओके। और आपके हिसाब से मतलब लोगों को जाना चाहिए क्या, या अभी नहीं जाना चाहिए जब तक वार चल रहा है?

अब देखिए, जिसका पेट भरा होता है ना, वो तो सोचेगा भाई दिन भर सोए, ठीक है। और जिसका पेट खाली होगा ना, तो वो तो सोचेगा ना घर से निकले, ₹2 कमाए। अब वो ₹2 कहाँ मिलेगा, वो तो गवर्नमेंट जानती है। अब उसको यहाँ मिल जाए ₹2, तो वो क्यों जाएगा विदेश, कोई भी अपने परिवार को छोड़ के।

और बेरोजगारी में इंसान जाएगा ही। आप या तो वहाँ बम से मरे, या तो भूख से मरे।

Kudrat (Host): No one wants to enter a warzone willingly. But, as the recruitment agent we just heard from said, for many, they don’t feel they really have a choice.

You either die by hunger or you die by bombs.

In the recent past, we’ve seen Indians take similar risks and willingly go to active conflict zones. To Israel to replace Palestinian labour after Oct 7, to Russia as the country is fighting Ukraine.

Gopal and Girish, the two men I met outside the UAE embassy, said the same thing.

Kudrat (from clip): मतलब आपको ये जंग वगैरह का डर नहीं लगता वहाँ जाने में?

Gopal: अब क्या करेंगे, पैसा के लिए, पेट के लिए आदमी कुछ भी करने के लिए तैयार हो जाता है। तो हम भी काम करने…

Kudrat (from clip): ठीक है, तो आप कह रहे थे मतलब पेट के लिए जाना पड़ता है, तो यहाँ पे नहीं सैलरी मिलती क्या?

Gopal: इतनी सैलरी कहाँ मिलती है? अगर दिल्ली मुंबई कमाएँगे, Rs 15,000–16,000 मिलेगा। उसमें रूम भाड़ा आधा चला जाएगा, 1/2 खुराक चला जाएगा। बचेगा Rs 5,000–6,000। उसमें क्या चलेगा, बताइए? इतना महंगाई ज्यादा बढ़ गई है, उसमें क्या होगा हमारा?

Kudrat (from clip): कितना मिलता है वहाँ पे?

Gopal: हम Rs 35,000–Rs 40,000 कमा लेते हैं, कि पूरा बच जाता है। खाना-पीना, रहना, दाढ़ी, बाल का सब फ्री रहता है कंपनी की तरफ से। कंपनी की तरफ से सब।

Kudrat (Host):  Gopal's words echo what so many feel—the pay gap is life-changing, and when home offers almost nothing after basics, the Gulf (or even riskier places) becomes the only real option.

For Girish and Gopal, it's not blind optimism—it's calculated survival. Girish plans to try stamping again Monday. If it works, he flies. If not... the wait continues, but the family's needs don't.

Kudrat (Host): That's all for today. You just heard The Signal Brief. We don't do hot takes. Instead, we bring you deep dives into the how and why of consumer trends. The Core produces The Signal Brief. Follow us wherever you get your favourite podcasts.

To check out the rest of our work, go to www.thecore.in.

If you have feedback, we'd love to hear from you. Write to us at feedback@thecore.in or you can write to me personally at kudrat@thecore.in.

Thank you for listening.