On Episode 952 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Captain Sam Thomas, President at ALPA India. We also feature an excerpt from our Special Edition featuring Kaushlendra Sinha, CEO at IAGES.

SHOW NOTES

(00:00) Stories of the Day

(01:20) Oil Prices Inch Up Further, Dampen Mood In Indian Markets

(02:43) Nifty50 Companies Report 10-Quarter Growth High Of 18%

(06:02) NSE IPO Could Be Valued At $55 Billion, Making It One Of Biggest In World

(10:17) How An Industry Initiative To Create A Standard For Gold Is Gaining Acceptance Across India

(20:08) Why Is Dope Testing For India’s Airline Pilots' Frontstage Right Now

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NOTE: This transcript contains the host's monologue and includes interview transcripts by a machine. Human eyes have gone through the script but there might still be errors in some of the text, so please refer to the audio in case you need to clarify any part. If you want to get in touch regarding any feedback, you can drop us a message on feedback@thecore.in.

Good morning, it's Wednesday the 19th of August and this is Govindraj Ethiraj broadcasting and streaming weekdays from Mumbai, India's financial capital.

Our top stories and themes…

Nifty 50 companies are reporting a 10-quarter growth high of 18 percent.

Oil prices enter further dampened mode in Indian markets.

The NSE IPO could be valued at 55 billion dollars or over 500,000 crore rupees making it one of the biggest in the world.

How an industry initiative to create a standard for gold is gaining acceptance across the country.

And why is dope testing for India's airline pilots front stage right now.

Markets, Nifty50, Oil and the NSE IPO

Hopes are now receding further on the prospect of a deal in West Asia anytime soon while global economies have or are still adjusting to the physical supply challenges and higher prices. The uncertainty is still to be fully internalised and will take evidently longer. The Indian markets for instance continue to take a beating whenever oil prices rise as they are once again right now.

Iran has threatened a fully offensive military posture as efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war with the US have stalled, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday while the United States ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire agreement that has now expired. Brent crude is now around $91 a barrel rising about 9% in less than two weeks and sustained higher crude prices could obviously mean higher inflation for countries like India who are amongst the world's largest oil importers. Analysts told Reuters that market sentiment remains fluid as the Middle East crisis has spilled over into bond yields particularly in the United States and if yields remain elevated it would not bode well for risk assets globally and more on that in a moment.

And then comes the good news in line with better corporate performance in the last quarter as we've been reporting. Incidentally we do have two longer conversations coming up with two chief investment officers of private funds in the next few days which would be interesting and should provide more insights into where smart money could be going in coming days. Corporate India broadly posted better than expected June quarter earnings with profit growth for nifty 50 companies averaging a 10 quarter high of 18 reinforcing expectations of sustained growth despite margin pressures.

Reuters quoted five brokerage firms saying incidentally oil marketing companies including public sector majors like Indian oil and BPCL were the sole weak spot in the wake of the uncertainty in the Middle East. 19 sectors beat estimates and the upgrade to downgrade improved to 1.5 according to one brokerage implying that 15 companies were upgraded for every 10 downgrades signalling a broad-based improving profit outlook for the rest of the year according to Reuters. The reasons for this festive demand GST or goods and services tax related consumption support credit expansion and investment activity which are key factors expected to underpin fiscal 2027 earnings according to them.

Meanwhile Kotak Institutional Equities put out a report saying the first quarter results were decent and gave confidence about a strong full year 26-27. They said they expect moderate market returns once the Iran-US conflict normalises and it also highlighted that valuations were full to rich except in pockets despite a long period of time correction. They said they also expected full year 27 and 28 net profits of the nifty 50 index to grow 18% and 14% after a muted 8% in 25-26.

They said that their assumptions of a robust recovery in earnings for 26-27 that's the current year may appear at odds with India's choppy macroeconomic environment but the strong growth reflects one the idiosyncratic composition of net profits of the market with a high share of profits of global commodities global services and product and utilities and the low base of 25-26 in the case of some sectors. They also said the Indian markets valuations appear comfortable on an aggregate basis amidst a large de-dating and financials that's banks and IT services while valuations of consumption stocks are expensive and investment stocks are at extremely rich levels. The Kotak report says the strong performance of other sectors such as aerospace and defence and capital goods with strong industry tailwinds has resulted in expensive valuations.

It also says that going back to the first quarter net income which grew at 17% now the 17.7% versus their expectations of a 10.4% growth while the net income of the entire Kotak institutional equity coverage universe grew 10.5% versus an expectation of an 8% decline. If one were to exclude the oil marketing companies net income increased even more about 25% versus expectations of about 15% says KIE or Kotak Institutional Equities. Meanwhile the Nifty was lower for the sixth straight session down 132 points to 24,154 and the Sensex has now fallen in five of the last six sessions closing down 492 points to 77,235.

The rupee was also lower on Tuesday and a possible Reserve Bank of India intervention helped keep prices somewhat stable despite the pressure from rising oil prices and rising global bond yields. The rupee closed at 95 rupees 68 paise down slightly from its previous lows of 95 rupees 60 paise in the previous session. And Bloomberg is reporting that the National Stock Exchange is gearing for a 55 billion dollars or more than 500,000 crore valuation for its much-planned discussed and debated initial public offer or IPO now expected to come next month.

The NSE has marketed its shares at 2000 to 2100 rupees per share during meetings with potential investors. Sources told Bloomberg adding that the NSEA has concluded most of its global roadshow with meetings in the Middle East still to be completed. Meanwhile sovereign borrowing rates are jumping around the world.

Yields on 30-year US treasuries have risen to their highest since 2007 this week while French borrowing costs hit the highest since 2008 and German peers were trading at 2011 levels according to a Bloomberg report which also added that gilt yields were approaching six percent in the UK and similar maturity Japanese ones are close to their all-time high. While domestic factors have a role in each market says the Bloomberg report the structural forces driving up yields are global in nature. Bloomberg also reported its region saying there are many reasons to think yields will be structurally higher this decade but one important difference is how rising deficits are being financed.

Typically deficits expand when the economy weakens accompanied by lower policy rates that help insulate the bond market however today's pro-cyclical fiscal expansion means more government borrowing is pushing yields higher when rates are already elevated.

Bank credit growth in July

Bank credit growth strengthened further as of July 31st 2026 accelerating to about 19.3 percent year-on-year from 17.7 percent as of July 15th with outstanding credit rising to 220 lakh crore rupees. Meanwhile bank deposit growth has accelerated to 15.4 percent year-on-year as of July 31st 2026 from 12.7 percent as of July 15th and 10 percent in the corresponding period last year marking the fastest pace since December 2016 according to a carriage rating.

So bank deposit growth is up and so is bank credit growth. The stronger deposit accretion narrowed the credit deposit growth differential to about 395 basis points from about 503 basis points in the previous fortnight. The loan to deposit ratio has also moderated to about 81.9 percent from 82.7 percent in the previous fortnight as deposit growth outpaced credit growth during the current fortnight according to the carriage report.

Paper currency in circulation continues to grow

On deposits and now cash: despite cash's declining share in individual transactions amid growing adoption of digital payments, currency in circulation continues to grow at double-digit rates, and this combination is making future cash demand harder to predict and complicating the Reserve Bank of India's planning for cash production and distribution capacity.

According to a report in the Business Standard, S. C. Murmu, the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India—the Deputy Governor said in the previous decade, adoption of digital payments has been revolutionary, to say the least. Yet, cash in circulation has not declined, especially in rural and semi-urban areas, amongst low-income groups, older populations, and small businesses. He highlighted that over the past few years, the Reserve Bank of India has produced between 28 to 30 billion banknotes annually across six denominations and disposed of about 21 billion pieces a year. As of now, about 176 billion banknotes are in circulation in India. In comparison, roughly 56 billion U.S. dollar bills and 30 billion euro banknotes were in circulation at the end of last year.

Standardisation for Gold Purity

Gold prices are lower now after two straight sessions of gains, even as oil prices have begun rising. Spot gold is at about $4,391 per ounce as of Tuesday morning. Gold prices hit the highest since June 5th last week. An analyst speaking to Reuters said while it was too early to suggest that they were seeing a resumption of the bull market, they were certainly encouraging signs for bulls, adding they expect structural bull run which started in 2022 to resume once oil supplies improve.

Sticking to gold, a key concern for most gold buyers in countries like India, particularly in the form of jewellery, has been the quality and purity of the gold they've purchased. While big retail brands have succeeded in creating both the awareness and trust to an extent, there has not been until recently a gold standard, quite literally, that helps people, particularly in smaller stores across the country. The Indian Association for Gold Excellence and Standards (or the IAGES) was set up recently as a self-regulatory organisation promoted by India's gold industry and the World Gold Council, and has been supported also by prominent gold sector industry associations.

The IAGES says it is an independent body bringing a framework to ensure transparency, trust, and sustainability to the gold industry by providing an accreditation framework and a code of conduct. The IAGES says, by operating autonomously, it empowers value chain partners—which could include retailers, bullion traders, hallmarkers, and refiners, among others—with trusted accreditation. I spoke with Kaushlendra Sinha the CEO of IAGES, and I began by asking him to walk us through how the process worked.

INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

Kaushlendra Sinha: I think it's about the retail. Like, you know, if you look at a country as diverse as India, you know, when you're looking at tier one, tier two, metro cities, etc., we find that there are a lot of practises which happen in the gold retail industry, which doesn't, you know, operate at transparency the way it should be, you know, starting from an invoicing to the way gold is sold in terms of the caratage, in terms of the hallmarking, etc.

So, it's actually a pretty strong felt need, you know, wherein we have seen that the consumers are going away. Now, if you look at gold as a category of consumption, you will find that, you know, it has remained constant in India over a period of time. It hasn't really grown much.

Obviously, the value has grown, but volume-wise it has remained constant or, you know, I would say recently it has come down. You know, as the prices have come down, consumers have become more and more sensitive towards buying gold. So, that's one.

Consumers are coming to the market for, in terms of the investment. So, somebody is coming to buy bullion, somebody is coming to buy ETFs, etc. So, that market continues to be there and grow.

When it comes to jewellery, we believe that there is a lot of transparency which still needs to be addressed. And lack of that transparency is basically resulting in lack of trust, which is resulting in lack of, you know, new generation customers or even old customers who are coming back, who are not coming to the market. And probably they need more collaborative, more assurance before, you know, they go for their point of sale.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. I know that you've been actively working for more than a year and you've tied up with many dwellers or jewellery chains. And how does a consumer know that that jewellery chain, for example, a jewellery store is accredited?

Kaushlendra Sinha: Again, since you asked me a question which leads to our origin. Now, we started our offering our accreditation August last year, almost August 2025 onwards. We set up a framework of auditors.

So, for us, it's important that, you know, there's a third-party auditor who comes on the board, who's looking at how our code of conduct is being implemented. So, that's something which is a basic fundamental or basic pillar that is there for us. So, when we were ready for offering accreditation, which was around August, September, as I said, we have grown since then.

So, we now have a pan-India network of retailer stores which are there. There are almost 145 entities, you know, overall, you know, if I include manufacturing, bullion trading, et cetera, who have been accredited by us. If I tell you retail, retail, there are more than 100 brands which are there with us.

When I'm saying brand, I mean, you know, the brand as such, not the stores. If I look at the entire store network that we have currently in our network, it's around 750 plus now. We are almost covering entire breadth of the country.

We are now present in more than 240 cities across the country. And this is something which is growing. So, you know, our assessment process takes time because there is a third-party involved, you know, and trade requires a lot of convincing for this to be adopted.

This is a self-regulatory organisation. This is something very voluntary for the trade to adopt. They have to pay for the process because there is, you know, a certain amount of marketing and cost that is attached to it.

So, we are growing. In fact, I would say we are adding 25 to 30 entities per month now. That's the run rate at which we are going and we are looking at how do we further enhance it.

As far as the consumer is concerned, we started our first B2C campaign, you know, sometime in December. You know, we started this entire initiative in Mumbai. Our primary pilot or the test market was Mumbai.

We wanted to be here, focus in Mumbai and see how the market reacts and how consumer adopts to us. So, we have done that. After doing that, we started our first campaign in Mumbai.

You know, we called our B2C media campaign, before you buy gold, first check IAGS. And we did it in multiple languages as we went around the country. But the idea has been to the consumer, our message to the consumer rather has been that the way you trust Hallmark for the purity of the metal, you should trust IAGS for the purity, integrity, fairness, transparency of the retailer with whom you are buying, you know, in whose hand you are placing your trust to buy.

So, you know, we have grown that way. We have now online directory that we have on our website. So, what we do is every time that a store is accredited by us, we put it out online on our website and we are getting very good traction.

And are you seeing some of the big brands, I mean, the corporate owned brands also sign up? It's taking time, but I'm happy to say that, you know, there are a few corporate brands which have already come on board. To name a few, we have P&G, Senco, some of the regional powerhouses like GRT in Tamil Nadu is huge, Jodha Lukas, Vaman Haripethe, you know, some of the East brands.

So, they're all coming on board as we are moving along. We can understand the bigger brands have got a different kind of play when they are looking at a consumer engagement, but we believe that the way that we are progressing, you know, they would be soon joining us.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Okay. And in the audit process that you do or your third party auditor does, what is it that or what are the things that they're finding that are sort of illustrative of what was not perhaps being done correctly or properly before?

Kaushlendra Sinha: So, what happens for us is that, as you said, there is one part which I actually digress on which was the transparency piece and the consumer advantage. But if you look at the code of conduct, you know, if I talk about what matters to the consumer, starting from a simple invoicing, starting from as simple thing as a product tagging, starting from as simple as verifying if the hallmark is done correctly. Right.

So, these are the things which matter to a consumer, starting to see that, you know, all your pricing is transparent. Right. So, if I'm selling gold, you know, I am telling the price for gold and the characters, you know, somebody's buying studded jewellery.

What is the kind of stones that somebody is buying? What are the making charges? Somebody charges for vestiges, somebody charges for value addition.

So, there are a lot of things that, you know, sometimes we find that the retailers add up and this confuses the consumer. So, from a consumer perspective, that's important. Second is for a consumer, he also wants to be ensured that if he's buying gold and many of the jewellers offer this promise that if you bring the gold back to us, we'll buy it at the original price.

You know, in our audit process, we also try to explain to the retailer that what are the business risks that you operate in? Have you understood your risks correctly? Right.

So, we do all that which basically gives consumers a certain level of confidence. And when we are talking to the retailer, you know, it's such an informal, unorganised growth of retail industry of gold in India that, you know, starting from a basic process of maintaining KYC, KYP, vendor onboarding process, you know, how do you handle your credit ageing? How do you manage the security of the process?

How do you manage the entire logistic? So, we ensure that all those things that we take care of in terms of the code of conduct.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. As you look ahead, I mean, we've seen gold prices hit a peak across $5,000 an ounce, we are about $4,300, but we had dropped below, come back. So, how is all of this affecting, it's not affecting you, but how are you seeing it from your vantage point?

Kaushlendra Sinha: So, absolutely. So, what happens that, you know, when gold prices were going up, we found a certain kind of retail behaviour, right? And as it crashed, we are suddenly finding the because, you know, falling market doesn't really give confidence to the consumer. They don't know where the market is going to bottom out.

I think the good thing is the market seems to have bottom out is on a rebound way. And we are seeing the consumer is coming back. We just concluded a show called IIJS, almost 3,500 manufacturers put up their display out there.

And we saw very positive traction, a lot of optimism on the floor. So, you know, a lot of jewellers who come from all over the almost $50,000 who turned up at the show. And most of the manufacturers that we spoke to, they were very optimistic.

They received orders. And I think once following week is where they expect the formalisation of the orders. But they believe that, you know, the gold industry, which was going through a dull period, you know, when prices went high, Prime Minister also made a call out.

So, with all that, the market had dampened. That's the reality. But what's happening that as prices have started moving up, there's optimism, which is back in the market.

And we are expecting very good festival season as we go forward towards Dhanteras, Diwali, wedding, etc. So, we would believe that the optimism is back in the market. Prices have stabilised and the prices from here would continue to move up.

I don't say that it'll reach the peak it has reached by Diwali, but surely it seems to have bottomed out.

Drug tests for Air India Pilots

Two more Air India pilots have reportedly tested non-negative in initial drug tests and were removed from flying duties while confirmatory results were awaited, according to various news reports. Nearly 400 pilots have undergone mandatory screening under an Air India programme that started recently. The testing covers cockpit crew across the airline group, including Air India Express.

A confirmatory test in case of non-negative results is crucial, as a false positive can be triggered by legitimate therapeutic treatment, including pain relief medication. Air India had mandated all pilots and cabin crew to undergo tests for psychoactive substances starting last Thursday, taking measures beyond the civil aviation regulator's rules, according to an Economic Times report.

Air India ordered all its pilots to get drug tests done as part of a new standard operating procedure after the pilot-in-command of a Phuket–Delhi flight failed two urine tests he was asked to undergo when a flight that he was commanding between Delhi and Phuket suffered a 300-foot mid-air altitude drop over Odisha on the 4th of August, injuring 17 people, including four crew members. The flight suffered that drop due to technical glitches, though the tests were subsequently carried out.

Meanwhile, the Federation of Indian Pilots on Monday urged the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (or DGCA) to increase random drug testing amongst pilots, saying the current minimum coverage of 10% a year is no longer sufficient for India's growing aviation sector, and proposed that at least 25 percent of pilots should be randomly tested each year, with pilots allowed to be selected more than once. Under existing DGCA rules, scheduled commercial aircraft operators and air navigation service providers are required to conduct random psychoactive substance testing of at least 10 percent of their aviation personnel per year, according to a *Business Standard* report.

I reached out to Captain Sam Thomas, President of the Airline Pilots Association of India, and I began by asking him why the issue of testing was suddenly front-stage.

INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

Capt. Sam Thomas: The first thing is the incident with the Air India flight that has brought this into prominence and drug testing is something that everybody welcomes in one way or the other. It's a media-driven thing as far as the incident is concerned and that has spooked the public and a very very knee-jerk reaction by Air India to say we are going to test everybody. They were going to test everybody anyways.

It's just that they were doing it in a phased manner of 10% which the law allows at random. So, what they were doing initially is people who came on for their refreshers, they were picking them up and doing this random testing. Now, that was a good way and it's about time we, you know, did the testing on all critical sort of employees, particularly pilots, engineers, air traffic controllers are also subject to this and widely I believe even the management should be tested because some of their decisions are critically doped.

So, there's nothing new about this, it's just that it's come into prominence past this incident that has happened from Phuket to Delhi.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right, and I did refer to it in the introduction. So, I mean Air India is one airline, there are other airlines. So, what are they doing in your understanding?

Capt. Sam Thomas: Well, they've also been doing it exactly what the CAR tells. For instance, Indigo, Akasa, they've all been testing randomly. Contrary to popular belief, not a lot of people are using substances and flying the aeroplane.

Now, what the union said initially also asked for is a transparent way of testing and know completely well what you're getting into, what could be a positive. So, we brought out a circular to the pilots stating that some of the substances that could be turning your test positive could be over-the-counter medication which we are liberally using in India. I know pilots who prescribe to other pilots heterozyme 100 mg, dolo 650, citrazine, cinerest and stuff like that.

So, this has been a practise in India and with the stricter checks on drugs, these also could lead to positives. So, there needs to be an awareness. The second part is the consumption of certain foods.

During Holi, there is Bhang, you know, every state has its own dish that is made with generous amount of these substances that could trigger this alarm and we advise the pilots to stay away from that in any form or shape. So, that is the awareness, then the infrastructure and a transparent way of putting the results to the pilots. Now, for the record, the pilot who's allegedly tested positive twice from Air India has still not got a report furnished to him and he doesn't know what he should do.

He swears he has not taken it but then that's not what matters. But if you give him the report, he probably has a better chance of either seeking legal recourse or challenging that report.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. So, you said that some of the medicines could trigger positive, for example, I think you mentioned paracetamols and pain relief and antihistamines. So, why is that?

And is that a global, I mean, could that happen in other parts of the world too?

Capt. Sam Thomas: Yes, yes, absolutely. These are global data which they've put out saying that some of these chemicals in these medicines, when they react together, they form a substance which is clinically checked by these tests and they could also come out as positive. So, that's why they have a safeguard in place wherein once your test comes positive, you are referred for the second test and then the test goes to the company medical officer who then tries and figures out whether it is actual substance abuse or one of these over-the-counter medication-linked or food-linked signs that have shown up in the test.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And this is distinct from tests that are conducted for alcohol levels?

Capt. Sam Thomas: Yes, they are two different tests completely.

The alcohol test is called the breath analyser test that is done on domestic flights 100% and flights originating out of India. Now, for a long time, we have had the flights that originate in foreign countries, they have a post-flight breath analyser. That's when you land in India, you do your breath analyser.

Now, the punishment for a post-flight breath analyser positive is far more stringent than the pre-flight positive. And this, the airlines have lobbied to get it because their argument was that if they operate to 50 countries like Air India and, you know, Jet Airways at that time, we'd have to keep a medical department in every country, a paramedic at least. So, that was a cost implication and they successfully lobbied against that.

And DGCA agreed to do that as a post-flight breath analyser test.

Govindraj Ethiraj: And just to go back to the incident that triggered this off, the Phuket Delhi flight which lost altitude suddenly and there were some injuries as well because of that. Now, that pilot was reportedly tested positive for marijuana. Now, do you have a formal reaction to that particular event and the outcome of that test?

Capt. Sam Thomas: We are made aware that he has tested positive for marijuana on the second test as well. Now, the issue is nothing official. So, when there's such a substantial charge, you better provide the person or the spokesperson with the details.

Now, the ministry has a very convenient way of telling only journalists and their favourite journalists orally. So, that is one of those things that we feel should not happen and you make it public if you are so confident, you just make it public. Now, there are a couple of disturbing incidents that have followed the incident of the Phuket Delhi flight.

One is the media and certain anchors are distinctly against finding out what exactly happened and are more intent on peddling that drug issue more than what it is supposed to be. The issue is there are two issues that are unlinked. So, we pointed out this in the beginning saying that the whole incident happened because of a technical glitch.

Now, the second part is the pilot who's allegedly a positive was not even at the controls. He was standing there and he was the first guy to be thrown up. Now, he also did suffer a little bit of injuries and the co-pilot who was on controls did a fantastic job of recovery and you know subsequent actions were textbook.

But every day a new story. Firstly, a false media briefing by Air India saying it was turbulence. Thereafter, a change in a couple of hours to say that it was transient technical fault.

Now, these are just gibberish as far as the truth is concerned. Yes, it was transient. Yes, it was technical.

Yes, it was a fault. But that was just to make sure that the normal person doesn't know what transpired. Now, I have been in contact with both the pilots and it's a general thing.

Anything happens, the pilots will call us to say, hey this happened. Now, so we encourage them to exactly say what happened and provide us documentation to substantiate what you're saying. Both of it was done.

But since the document was confidential and it was with us, we could not put it out to the media and the three days we were accused of some kind of cover-up at all times and there are pilots pro-media who hide under anonymous names on Twitter handles and feed the journalists with all kind of bunkum theories and they're not able to back it up and we are left to bear the brunt.

Govindraj Ethiraj: So, bottom line, Captain, you're saying is that one is do tests, second is share the tests results transparently with the pilots and the industry associations or pilot bodies like you. But do the tests and do even more of them if necessary, right? If I took away the key messages, so to speak.

Capt. Sam Thomas: Very correct. Let's test all the way through. That's something that we welcome.

And let's sensitise the kids also. Govind, the issue was, this is the new generation and I belong to a very archaic generation compared to them because I did get a couple of calls from these youngsters saying, sir, we are smoking up. I didn't even know smoking up was the term to be used.

So they said, we've been doing it at our leisure. So why should it worry you? So I told them, hey, look, there is testing going on.

You're bound to be hauled up at some time. You will fail the test if you smoke. So they say they have an antidote to that.

And they're very nicely putting it to me. And I felt for a moment that I need to evolve. So I don't know how that they say you can have banana milkshake, water and cranberry juice and the test will come all clear.

So I said, amazing. I mean, why don't we just not take it, you know, and be happy all along. So I don't know.

So we need to sensitise them as well.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. Captain, thank you so much for joining me.

Capt. Sam Thomas: Thank you very much.