On Episode 934 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Pooja Goyal Sharma, Founding CEO at the Udaiti Foundation as well as Shankkar Aiyar, economic journalist, columnist and author.

SHOW NOTES

(00:00) Stories of the Day

(01:00) Markets Track Oil Prices, Look For Consumption Signs

(05:00) Monsoon Revives, Industrial Output Up, The Latest Numbers

(07:45) SpaceX Loses $1.2 Trillion In Market Cap, Or Entire Tesla

(09:14) The Arithmetic Behind Power And Political Anxiety In Recent Student Protests

(17:47) Why Are Urban Women Not Finding More Jobs?

(27:53) And The Airport That Is Rated Best Despite No Flights

Check out our clean power tracker https://cleanpower.thecore.in/

—

NOTE: This transcript contains the host's monologue and includes interview transcripts by a machine. Human eyes have gone through the script but there might still be errors in some of the text, so please refer to the audio in case you need to clarify any part. If you want to get in touch regarding any feedback, you can drop us a message on feedback@thecore.in.

Good morning, it's Wednesday the 29th of July and this is Govindraj Ethiraj, usually broadcasting and streaming weekdays from Mumbai, India's financial capital, but continue to be in transit right now.

Our top stories and themes…

The stock markets are tracking oil prices and looking for consumption signs.

The monsoon revives, industrial output is up, the latest numbers

The arithmetic behind power and political anxiety in recent student protests.

SpaceX loses 1.2 trillion dollars in market capitalisation or an entire Tesla.

Why urban women are not finding more jobs

And the airport that's rated the best despite no flights.

Markets, Oil and FMCG

We are of course back to watching oil prices which have come down after hovering close to a hundred dollars a barrel, but like always there is no guarantee that we will not return to the point or that point as the US-Iran war goes one step closer to a forever war mode.

A forever war mode means lots of recalculations when it comes to economic impact and trade as we know. Could such a war end in a month, six months or a year? Well, we don't know again, but what we do know is that we cannot believe most of the promises being made to the effect that it will end in days and weeks as we've learned over the last five months. On Tuesday, oil prices were lower hovering around one week close amidst hopes for a resolution in the US-Iran war even as flows through the state of Hormuz were subdued according to Reuters.

Brentwood prices were around 86 and a half dollars on Tuesday and had hit their lowest since July 20th after the United States abruptly suspended a campaign of airstrikes against Iran over the weekend. Reports quoted US President Donald Trump saying on Monday that Washington was having good talks with Iran and that there was a chance of resolution. However, he said once again that strikes would resume if negotiations failed while Iran issued similar comments of retaliation.

So and speaking to reporters on Monday, US President Trump also dismissed suggestions that the US was running short on weapons, saying the military had plenty of ordnance. So Indian markets are obviously struggling to find a breakthrough in all of this. After being range bound on Tuesday, the Sensex was down about 69 points to 76,765 and the Nifty 50 was down 10 points to 23,985.

The broader markets were mixed. The Nifty mid-cap was up slightly and the Nifty small cap was down again slightly. The Nifty IT index was however up about 3% and rising for the third session according to reports.

Now most analysts look at fast-moving consumer good or consumer product company results to glean the overall consumption trends which of course point to how the underlying economy is doing. FMCG major Hindustan Unilever appears to have disappointed on that count in the quarterly results. It saw its steepest one-day decline since 2020, falling 7% in Tuesday's trade as investors were unhappy with the April to June quarter earnings.

Levers reported underlying volume growth of 5% which was down from 6% in the preceding quarter. Net income was down roughly 4% from a year ago to about 26,000 crore rupees. Net income was down about 3.7% or just under 4% from a year ago to about 2,630 crore rupees.

Now this was better than average analyst estimates of about 2,480 crore rupees but evidently failed to reassure investors. A Bloomberg report pointed out that other companies in that space like Tata Consumer Products saw a 13% volume growth. Nestle India also saw a double digit volume growth.

Other companies like Marico and Darbar's pre-earnings also point to double digit growth in home, personal care and food categories. So to come back to underlying consumption trends, it seems to be on the stronger side compared to previous quarters. Elsewhere, the overall economic growth is expected to slow sharply this fiscal year after following a stronger expansion last year and recover only modestly the following year according to a Reuters poll of economists thanks to weak private investment and higher oil prices.

Gross domestic product or GDP is forecast to grow 6.6% in the fiscal year ending March 27 according to the median estimate in a Reuters poll which is down from 7.7% in 25-26 and then it could rise in the subsequent year to 6.8%. There were about 42 economists polled in this round and the poll happened between July 21st and 27th. Economists told Reuters that while investment and inventory accumulation supported growth, measurement distortions have likely flattered the real growth outcome leaving the headline print stronger than the underlying macro reality. Interestingly, this is of course the broader economic landscape.

Reuters polls of several Asian economies found that higher oil prices and weak domestic demand are weighing on the outlook for China, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Monsoon Rebound

Sticking to the economy but looking at monsoons, after one of the weakest starts in decades, the monsoon has revived with July rainfall running about 1.8% or just under 2% above normal and the cumulative deficit narrowing to about 15% from 40% as at the end of June according to a report from CareEdge Ratings adding that it projects food inflation to peak at 7.5% for the third quarter of this year. And a more detailed update, despite the July recovery all four meteorological regions are in deficit led by eastern northeast India and the south peninsula each at 29% below normal reservoir levels which most economists now track closely have recovered from a seasonal low of about 26% of full reservoir level or FRL in early July to 38% but are still below the normal level of about 41%.

Kharif sowing has improved significantly from a 16% deficit earlier in July but is still about 4.7% or just under 5% lower year on year as of July 24th. The Carriage report also points out that declining pulses acreage may be a key inflation risk especially as prices of Arar and Toor and Moong Dals have witnessed six consecutive months of positive sequential inflation. Oil seed acreage is also down about 2% annually which could add to domestic edible oil inflation as India imports more than half its edible oil needs and global prices are rising.

Rise in Indian Industrial Output

Industrial output rose about 7.3% in June compared to 5.1% in the previous month thanks to improved manufacturing sector performance and strong growth in the electricity and gas supply sector. According to reports this is the third monthly index of industrial production or IIP data based on the new series. The IIP growth rate for the month of June 2026 is 7.3% against 5.1% in the month of May 2026 and the revised estimate for IIP for the month of May is 5%.

SpaceX and AI Stocks

What's $1 trillion between a trillionaire and his biggest fans? A new report on CNBC asked yesterday. SpaceX has now raised more than $1.2 trillion in market capitalisation since its high price of $225 in June.

Almost exactly the value of Elon Musk's other company Tesla whose shares just fell to near one-year lows. On Monday SpaceX fell for the 13th session out of the last 16 and has now closed at $113 as of Monday. And guess what? Elsewhere Apple has passed NVIDIA on Monday for the title of the world's most valuable company and has crossed NVIDIA for the first time at market close since April 2025.

Shares of NVIDIA were down 5% on Monday giving it a valuation of about $4.7 trillion even as AI chip stocks continue to decline. And Apple shares rose slightly giving it a market capitalisation of $4.95 trillion. Apple's earnings are coming up on Thursday.

So far in 2026 NVIDIA whose market capitalisation touched $5 trillion in October last year have only climbed 4% and Apple's are up 24%. Investors are also switching focus as we've discussed here from AI chips called graphics processing units to memory chips and other data centre infrastructure that benefit from the AI boom and the stocks here are Micron Technology, SK Hynix and SanDisk according to CNBC.

Student Protests, Power and Political Anxiety

The student protests that captured the nation's attention in the last few weeks have halted and the government is committed to addressing the immediate and long term issues raised by them in the context of exam paper leaks in the competitive exams particularly the NEET or the medical entrance test exam.

But the protests as we've been discussing do highlight some structural challenges facing the country's youth demographic being also the reason they are protesting. The future for youth worldwide is looking less clear in general and more specifically in the age of AI and they want accountability, action and a clearer path to the future. Columnist Shankar Iyer wrote recently in a column in the New Indian Express that the arithmetic explains power and political anxiety.

Projections according to him estimate the 15 to 29 years cohort at about 371 million which is a youth population that's larger than the population of the United States. It is the constituency of potential voters, some about to reach the ballot box and some in the job queue disappointed by it he says. He also points out that it came of political age a decade ago and knows only the promises and disappointments of one political regime.

I reached out to him and I began by asking him what was the economic cause and effect translation of that 371 million figure and how we should be viewing the youth protests from that lens.

INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

Shankkar Aiyar: So, if you remember 2002-2003, there was a BRICS report, and the BRICS report had created this golden egg at the end of 2030 or 2040, where India would be the second or third largest economy, and that was based on the demographic of a youth population, and this is what this youth population represents. Now, just like in the poultry business, you have hens, and then eggs, and the eggs have to hatch, and the chickens have to come out, similarly in Indian economics, you have to have these young people educated, trained, skilled, and employed, and this is where the gap exists actually, and this has been the consistent struggle of governments since 2000. There is a failure to recognise that unless you create the conditions to create employment, employment will not grow, and then you can start from regulations, compliances, investment, the changes in law, the opening up of sectors.

So, every government comes with the agenda of setting or resetting the headlines and not solving the problem, and even now, I mean, the national education policy spoke about computerised tests. Six years after it came out, there's no computerised test because everybody has some theory about rural people or young people not being able to use computers, whereas they're all using the handheld devices far better than most adults do. So, I don't know, I mean, you know, this is the gap between what is the reality and what is the recognition.

I think government has to do a much better job in understanding that they are trailing way behind the thinking of the youth population, the Gen Z or Gen Millennial, whatever you call that.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. So, if you were to look at this now in the context of AI, and you've been writing on that as well, does that situation get worse, or does your writing account for that or these kinds of disruptions?

Shankkar Aiyar: So, in this case, we are between the rock and the hard place, because the global business model, there is a transition happening in global economy from more labour to more capital and more technology. And that model will be adopted here because after all, we have to compete in the global markets. And when we do that, we will create fewer jobs.

For instance, just take the IT and services sector, and today there have been news reports on how call centre jobs are being cut down, software jobs are being cut down. There are many reports which suggest what's happening in the sector. And IT and services, as you know, is the largest employer, the largest exporter, the largest consumer base.

So, this is just one aspect of it. Then you will have dark factories, you will have humanoids, robots, all of this is coming through, and there is nothing you can do to sort of say that we will be inoculated or isolated or insulated or insured against all these developments in the global economy. So, the government has to think a little proactively, and that is the trouble with bureaucracy.

The problem with this government is that there is a lot of dependence on the bureaucracy. The bureaucrats are vested in the status quo. They're invested in the status quo.

Govindraj Ethiraj: So, when you say they're vested in the status quo, why would that be the case? I mean, wouldn't everyone want to benefit if more jobs are secured or more youngsters find a career path?

Shankkar Aiyar: Okay, let's look at this way. So, this government has been, and the previous government too, have been talking about ease of doing business, okay? You take up the charts and see how many clearances or permits are required to set up a hospital or a school or a factory or a power plant in 2010 or 2014, whichever date you choose, and how many you require them.

There's been like reams of letters written, analysis reports, how 20 states have done that, 10 states have done this, investment conferences, all this kinetic Karnataka, magnetic Maharashtra, all that stuff has happened. But it is still the same story, Govind, that you require over 100 permissions to set up a power plant. All these data centres, where are they going to get the water from?

What is the address to the water distress that is in the system? So, these are things that the bureaucrats are not concerned. I mean, you know, the system is not incentivised for outcomes.

That's my understanding, that the processes are not being changed because the system is not incentivised for outcomes. If they were incentivised for outcomes, they would have by now changed the processes. So, you have a situation where a case-by-case or a suitcase-by-suitcase system functions.

So, suddenly one day you get up and you are told that, you know, we are going to open up airline business for anybody who is running an airport. To me, that could have been done before, could have been done later. Why is it happening now?

People are asking this question. So, there are these whole system is geared to the previous TPA in the solar projects. Why isn't rooftop solar projects taking off?

Because the state electricity boards will simply not clear the house projects at speed unless there is a government chappa there, you know. So, these are things that you are struggling with energy resilience. You are importing 88% of your crude, you're importing 40-45% of your energy, you want to go at 7 plus percent.

All of these are issues that are interconnected and which is why I said that this cohort that went to Jantar Mantar represents the wall that has been put up against the arc of power. This is what I think that this may be changed, maybe it will change, maybe they will come up with ideas. I mean, you know, and it's not just the 300 million go in, there are parents.

So, your actual number will be much higher. Anybody who has a child at home knows the cost of educating the child and sending in for three years and then waiting for the government to sort of create the conditions for employment. I don't want to be sounding too pessimistic and I have phenomenal faith in unity and innovation that Indians can produce.

If this country is running now, go in. It is a live innovation lab. It is a live miracle.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Okay, last question. So, I know this is a much longer conversation, but is there a silver lining in all of this? And I'm not talking about the protest and the political side of it.

I'm talking about the economic side of it. I mean, are you seeing anything that offers any ray of hope?

Shankkar Aiyar: I guess this generation might sort of reconcile itself to the idea that jobs being employed is not equal to earning money. I mean, you know, earning money doesn't require you to be employed. You could employ people, you could have startups and stuff like that.

AI might make that easier. I know young engineers who have had difficulty getting internships are actually doing jobs, contract jobs for the very same companies. So, it's an interesting intersection we are.

I am hopeful and confident that these guys will find some ways out. But as far as the grand picture of the Vixit Bharat, I think that road is yet to be paved.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Shankkar, thank you so much for joining me.

Shankkar Aiyar: Thank you, Govind.

Latest Survey on Indian Women in the workforce

A new report from Delhi based Udaiti foundation looking at periodic labour force survey or PLFS data for 2025 which tracks trends from 2022 to 25 finds that rural women's workforce participation has jumped from about 37 percent to about 46 percent in three years while urban participation is still stuck below 30 percent. The PLFS survey is conducted by the national statistics office of the ministry of statistics and programme implementation of the government of India and is the primary source of data on activity participation and employment and unemployment condition of the population.

Its survey methodology provides monthly and quarterly estimates of labour force indicators for the country. Now the gap that's widening isn't rural India it's the cities says the report. It also flags that 57 percent of women in regular wage jobs have no written contract with manufacturing alone accounting for about 2.7 million such women.

The report titled where are India's working women highlights what it says is a counter-intuitive story. It also says that five years of data from company balance sheets show workforce participation in the formal sector stagnant at 18 percent. I spoke with Pooja Goyal Sharma Udaiti's founding CEO and I began by asking her how she was reading these numbers and the reasons behind them.

INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

Pooja Goyal Sharma: So one of the measures that is used to measure women's participation in the workforce is female labor force participation rate, FLFPR. And that number has gone up from 27 to 37 to now 41 percent. It has come down a little bit in the last couple of quarters, but broadly around 42 percent.

When you peel the onion, just one layer, what you see is all of that growth has either been in the rural or in the self-employed segment. If you look at the formal workforce participation and participation in the urban areas, that continues to be very, very poor. So some of the increase that has happened, it has gone up from 37.5 percent to 46 percent in the rural areas, whereas the urban FLFPR is still at 28 percent. So when you look at both of that, what you see is almost 157 million employable women are out of India's workforce today. And that's a really large number. And on the other side, you know, there are all sorts of labor shortages that are happening as we are growing our factories.

What we are beginning in the formal Indian manufacturing, we are looking at a required inflow of about 10 to 12 million skilled work over the next five years. So we are sitting on this large talent base of women who are employable, but we are not removing the barriers that are stopping them from getting into the workforce and contributing to the economy.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Okay, I'll come to the how or what we should do about it in a moment. But the data itself, I mean, is the data the way you're interpreting it when you say 157 million women are out of workforce? Is this the same definition, let's say the government uses to conclude who is and who is not in the workforce?

Pooja Goyal Sharma: Absolutely. This is completely based on periodic labor force survey data.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. So there's no distinction or deviation because of, let's say, one hour of work a day versus fully employed and so on.

Pooja Goyal Sharma: Not at all. This is based on the PLFS data.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Got it. Now, when you say 157 million women, what's the rural urban split roughly?

Pooja Goyal Sharma: So in rural area, the percentage of women in the workforce is 46%. And in the urban, FLFPR is 27%.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Yeah, what would this be for male?

Pooja Goyal Sharma: In the rural areas for male, it is 80% versus 45% of women. And in urban areas, it is 76% for male, as opposed to 27% for women.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And anecdotally, I guess, or I mean, maybe through other lens, if you were to use different lenses, what is the reason why we have such high levels or relatively high levels of women unemployed in urban India? Yes.

Pooja Goyal Sharma: So here, the addressable concerns cited by women who are out of the labor force, the biggest one is caregiving and homemaking, 89%. 5% is social and religious constraints. Rest is all other miscellaneous reasons, no work at convenient locations, etc.

But the largest one is caregiving. And if I can cite some data from research that we have done, almost 80% of women who get jobs outside the vicinity of where they live, decline jobs due to the lack of safe and affordable housing.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And I guess that applies even for manufacturing companies or locations, which may be a little away from the city and so on.

Pooja Goyal Sharma: Absolutely. And you know, logically, it makes sense. That's one of the big reasons why Tamil Nadu has emerged as the big hub for women in manufacturing.

Almost 42% of women in manufacturing in India are in Tamil Nadu, because there is a whole enabling infrastructure around housing, mobility, child care that enables women to work in some of these manufacturing hubs.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And I'm going to come back to the gap in a moment. But you also pointed out in your report that a large percentage of women in regular wage jobs have no written contract.

Pooja Goyal Sharma: That's right. Yes.

Govindraj Ethiraj: So is that because it's fundamentally unorganized sector jobs?

Pooja Goyal Sharma: Yes. So if you look at the numbers, so casual workers, there are more women in casual labor than men. The women who are in the workforce, that's about 160 million.

Of that, 101 million are self-employed, 31 are regular wage jobs, and 28 million is casual, 31 million are regular wage. Out of the regular wage, only 13 million have written contract, 18 million have no written contract. So there is a casual labor, which is a separate category with 28 million women.

But 31 million, which is regular wage, which is that 90, 18% number I talked about, even there only 13 million have written contract.

Govindraj Ethiraj: So, and you're not talking about domestic help and so on. That's in the former category.

Pooja Goyal Sharma: That is right. That would be the casual labor.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And if you were to look at policy responses, and obviously there are many, and some of which I'm sure are work in progress, what are your sort of key suggestions at this point of time, if you were to increase the number of women in the active workforce?

Pooja Goyal Sharma: I would say there are three sets of responses. One is the enabling ecosystem. So we talk a lot about gender norms and why, because of gender norms, women are not allowed to work.

But a lot of our on the ground research shows that the enabling infrastructure, which is safe and affordable housing, safe and affordable mobility, first and last mile mobility, childcare infrastructure, safety, are all very critical levers that are required for women to actually get into the workforce. So that is one big set of interventions we need to do. So treat this gender infrastructure, not as welfare infrastructure, but actually economic infrastructure that can bridge the supply and demand of jobs that exist in the country today.

The second is around jobs itself. What we have seen is women are largely, whether you're looking at ITIs or polytechnics, they're enrolled in trades where there are no jobs fundamentally. It might be sewing, cosmetology, sometimes even stenography.

And so they do not even consider jobs in manufacturing, warehousing, where all the job growth is happening today. So it's important. And where we have seen the gaps are in three areas there.

One is aspiration. Women just don't aspire for those jobs. Second is information.

They do not know that, look, when I move here today, it might be an 18,000 job, but the growth will be significant if I'm able to get into the formal workforce. And third is mobilization. The way some of the district employment exchanges mobilize people for these jobs through job mailers, et cetera, women are not even reached there.

So I think some interventions at the education level itself to ensure that they understand that this is where the job growth and the opportunities are, and this is how you can access them. Second is the enabling infrastructure. And the third big category is actually entrepreneurs, seeing entrepreneurs as job creators, because one of the big challenges why women don't take some of these jobs is they don't want to migrate.

And they are looking for, they need flexibility. They're looking for opportunities in their area. And therefore entrepreneurship, and we won't have those many jobs if there are 157 million women out of the workforce.

So the third big category is entrepreneurship, where there is a large number of self-employed women, SHG women. There has been a grassroots movement around that. And now is an opportunity to help scale some of those enterprises so that they can become job creators.

And so that is the third level of intervention that can really significantly move the scale.

Govindraj Ethiraj: Got it. Pooja, thank you so much for joining me.

Pooja Goyal Sharma: Thank you. It was great to speak to you.

The Best Airport has hardly any Flights

Khajuraho airport in Madhya Pradesh recently ranked India's top airport in the airport authority of India's latest consumer satisfaction index. The only hitch the airport has no commercial flights operating during July and August according to a times of India report. The airport's director told the times of India that flights from there usually go to Delhi and Varanasi but there are none since the first of July.

Now this is obviously prompted questions about how this survey was done. The full-fledged airport whose terminal was completed in the late 1960s and saw its first light apparently in 1978 has outscored large and busier peers in the biannual passenger survey according to the times of India report. So even if there were flights when those surveys were done it was just two of them.

The report says that the AAI or the airport authority of India surveys produced from biannual surveys commissioned to independent agencies to ensure objectivity. Passengers look at 33 core parameters ranging from ground transport and parking to wi-fi and food outlets and also respond on questions on hygiene and cleanliness. An air traveller told the times of India that in practise this means airports with intermittent or seasonal operations can still achieve high satisfaction if facilities cleanliness and staff conduct meet traveller expectations and presumably that makes some logical sense.

On the other hand if you are planning to travel to Khajuraho the good news is that flights are expected to resume in the month of October from Delhi and Varanasi that is.