India’s aluminium industry has long been dominated by two conglomerates — Aditya Birla Group and Vedanta — for decades.

Now, two of India's wealthiest groups, Adani Group and Reliance Industries, seem keen to join them.

​​The timing is not a surprise. India's aluminium demand is expected to grow by 5-6% annually over the next decade, driven by investments in electricity transmission and distribution, renewable energy, electric vehicles and construction.

However, the new entrants will not be able to win this sector only with deep pockets. Access to bauxite, reliable power supplies and production scale have to be built, and the incumbents have had years to do so.

Both Adani and Reliance have also stepped up investments in green energy, a sector expected to contribute significantly to future aluminium consumption.

For Adani, the ambition is taking shape through an $11.5 billion integrated aluminium project in Odisha. Reliance, meanwhile, has reportedly expressed interest in a bauxite block in the state, although it has yet to publicly announce any aluminium plans.

Aluminium production is a cost-intensive business, and access to bauxite and affordable power will decide how competitive the new projects can become.

India has substantial bauxite resources. Yet it has been a net importer of the mineral since 2018, as alumina refining capacity has expanded faster than domestic mine development. With more refining and smelting capacity being planned, the pressure on raw material supplies is expected to increase.

As Neha TU, senior analyst at commodity market rating firm BigMint, puts it, “Bauxite availability is not the primary constraint for new aluminium entrants in India; securing economically viable, long-term supplies is.”

What’s The Attraction?

The reason for the sector attracting new money is clear.

India's aluminium consumption increased 11.4% to approximately 6.1 million tonnes in FY26, from 5.5 million tonnes in the previous financial year. Domestic production, meanwhile, grew just 1.4%, from 4.2 million tonnes to 4.3 million tonnes.

India’s aluminium is currently produced by National Aluminium Company Ltd (Nalco), Hindalco Industries and Vedanta, India's largest aluminium producer.

Industry estimates suggest domestic demand could rise from 6.1 million tonnes in FY26 to 8-8.5 million tonnes by 2030.

That would leave India increasingly dependent on additional domestic capacity or imports to meet consumption.

McKinsey's Aluminium Demand Model projects India's aluminium demand to grow by around 6-7% annually between 2025 and 2035.

“Under the assumptions of the McKinsey Aluminium Demand Model, India’s aluminium demand is projected to grow at around 6–7 percent annually between 2025 and 2035,” Rajat Gupta, Senior Partner at McKinsey & Company told The Core.

India is already the world's second-largest metals and mining market, with its share of global revenue rising from 6% in 2020 to about 10% in 2025. It is expected to reach 12% by 2035, according to McKinsey's Global Materials Perspective 2026.

Shivanshu Thaplyal, partner – Projects and Project Finance at Khaitan & Co, attributes the growing interest from large conglomerates to the demand outlook and opportunities across the aluminium value chain.

India continues to see demand across power transmission and distribution, renewable energy, construction, transportation and electric vehicles, he said. This creates opportunities in primary production, downstream manufacturing and recycling.

“The projected growth in aluminium consumption, coupled with opportunities for import substitution and investments in integrated aluminium projects, is likely to support further expansion of domestic production capacity and value-added manufacturing,” Thaplyal told The Core.

For Adani and Reliance, the opportunity also fits with their expanding interests in green energy.

Aluminium is an important input for the infrastructure supporting the energy transition, giving both groups a potential strategic interest beyond the metal's standalone demand growth.

Adani Builds, Reliance Eyes Aluminium Entry

While Adani Enterprises has been vocal about its aluminium ambitions for the last couple of years, it made an important announcement in July. It signed a memorandum of understanding with the Odisha government, alongside International Resources Holding (IRH), an Abu Dhabi-based natural resources investment platform and an IHC Group company through 2PointZero, to develop an integrated greenfield aluminium project.

The proposed investment is $11.5 billion. The plan includes a 4 million tonnes per annum alumina refinery and a 2 million tonnes per annum aluminium smelter, among other facilities. The company has not announced a timeline for starting production.

The scale of the proposed project is significant when compared with existing producers.

Hindalco in India has an upstream capacity of 1.3 million tonnes and downstream capacity of 0.6 million tonnes. Vedanta has 5 million tonnes of alumina refining capacity and 1.85 million tonnes of aluminium smelting capacity. Both companies have plans to expand further.

Reliance's plans are considerably less developed.

The company has not made any official statement on entering aluminium, despite multiple news reports suggesting interest in the Karlapat bauxite block in Odisha. It was reportedly among the companies that expressed interest in the block in July.

However, both companies face the same fundamental question of where the bauxite comes from.

Bauxite is primarily used to produce aluminium — first refined into alumina, and the product is then smelted into aluminium.

Bauxite Is Key

India has vast bauxite resources estimated at 4,958 million tonnes as of April 1, 2020, according to Ministry of Mines data. Producing one tonne of aluminium requires approximately four tonnes of bauxite.

But large reserves have not translated into adequate domestic supplies. India has been a net importer of bauxite since 2018, and the deficit is only expected to widen.

McKinsey estimates net imports reached approximately 4.5 million tonnes in 2025, with Guinea accounting for around 90% of imports.

The gap could widen as more refining capacity.

McKinsey estimates India's domestic bauxite deficit could increase from approximately 0.4 million tonnes in 2025 to 7.7 million tonnes by 2030 and 17.3 million tonnes by 2035.

Existing Players Have An Upper Hand

Existing and new entrants will have to navigate this deficit to make a mark in India's aluminium sector.

Incumbents have the early advantage.

Vedanta currently says domestic bauxite accounts for 37% of its mix, but expects to take its domestic sourcing mix to more than 90% by the end of the year as new mining leases become operational.

Hindalco has previously said that 100% of the bauxite required for its alumina smelters comes from internal sources, except for Belagavi. It has also noted that it has a long-term agreement in place for the planned expansion at its Aditya refinery, expected to come online in FY28.

Adani's position is less established. In its FY26 annual report, Adani Enterprises said its greenfield alumina refinery was being planned around existing bauxite resources from the Ballada and Kutrumali blocks in Odisha, with reserves of 22.13 million tonnes and 128 million tonnes, respectively. The company also identified securing additional blocks or entering long-term bauxite supply contracts as options for meeting its requirements.

Adani has won these blocks in earlier auctions, but its proposed expansion will require further supply arrangements.

Reliance, meanwhile, has no known access to a bauxite mine in India.

For the new entrants, securing mines is not simply a matter of winning auctions. They must also obtain environmental clearances and establish dependable supply chains.

“Bauxite availability is not the primary constraint for new aluminium entrants in India; securing economically viable, long-term supplies is,” BigMint's Neha said.

“For new entrants planning integrated alumina and aluminium operations, the challenge lies in securing captive mining leases, obtaining environmental clearances and establishing reliable supply chains. Established producers with existing mining assets and logistics infrastructure enjoy a structural advantage.”

Power Costs Will Decide The Fight

Bauxite is only one part of the equation. Aluminium production is highly energy-intensive, making power costs another major determinant of profitability.

Adani and Reliance could attempt to offset some of their raw material disadvantages through a combination of domestic and imported bauxite and the power cost benefits of their respective green energy ecosystems in Gujarat. But their established competitors have spent years improving operational efficiency and securing backward integration.

For Nalco, a fully integrated aluminium producer, power and fuel costs alone accounted for 25% of total expenses in FY26.

Third-party procurement and imports could help new entrants bridge the gap in domestic bauxite availability. But ore quality, transportation costs and supply security will influence the economics of their projects.

“Therefore, access to bauxite is a significant entry barrier, but power costs, capital intensity and scale are equally critical to the competitiveness of an integrated aluminium project,” Neha said.

The importance of cost competitiveness is already visible in the performance of incumbent producers.

Vedanta Aluminium said its profits doubled in the July-September 2026 quarter compared with a year earlier, supported by record production, improved cost competitiveness and progress on strategic integration initiatives.

Hindalco, too, has said it is confident of strengthening its position in the first quartile of the global cost curve, supported by backward integration through captive coal and bauxite resources.

Aluminium prices have also been supportive. London Metal Exchange prices have remained above $3,000 per tonne since the fourth quarter of FY26, following production disruptions in West Asia and Africa amid the West Asia crisis.

But favourable prices and strong demand do not automatically make new projects competitive. Adani and Reliance will have to build capacity, secure raw material supplies and establish cost efficiencies against producers that already have a head start.

The opportunity is large enough to attract two of India's biggest conglomerates. Whether they can turn that ambition into competitive aluminium businesses will depend, largely, on how successfully they get the mineral that starts the entire process.