Will Indian Markets See A Strong November?
The month of November has begun on a flat note for Indian markets, but in the rest of the world, the equities party is rocking on
On Episode 717 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Ajay Srivastava, Founder at Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) as well as Ayaz Memon, Veteran Sports Journalist and Commentator.
SHOW NOTES
(00:00) Stories of the Day
(00:50) Will Indian markets see a strong November?
(06:44) Indian exporters are now feeling the full impact of the 50% tariffs in the US. The shocking details on how pharma and electronics exports are hit too.
(19:57) After India’s stunning victory against South Africa, what next for the women’s cricket team.
https://algorand.co/india-summit-2025
NOTE: This transcript contains the host's monologue and includes interview transcripts by a machine. Human eyes have gone through the script but there might still be errors in some of the text, so please refer to the audio in case you need to clarify any part. If you want to get in touch regarding any feedback, you can drop us a message on feedback@thecore.in.
—
Good morning, it's Tuesday, the 4th of November and this is Govindraj Ethiraj broadcasting and streaming weekdays from Mumbai, India's financial capital.
Our top stories and themes…
Will Indian markets see a strong November?
Indian exporters are now feeling the full impact of the 50% tariffs in the United States. The shocking details on how pharmaceuticals and electronics exports, which were tariff-free, have been hit too.
After India's stunning victory against South Africa, what next for the women's cricket team?
Outlook for November
The month of November has begun on a flat note for Indian markets, but in the rest of the world, the equities party is rocking on. October was a good month for Indian markets as we discussed yesterday as well, with the Nifty 50 stock index gaining about 4.5%, which was its best performance since March. Corporate earnings have done better than expectations, but the expectations themselves were low.
On the other hand, the strong macroeconomic tailwinds continue and the cloud on the otherwise bright horizon is the US-India trade war, and more on that shortly. Remember, India's exports to the United States now incur a total tariff of 50%, which is higher than 47% on Chinese goods, a situation or scenario which could have been or rather was not predicted or not at all expected until now. Back to Indian markets, investors will now have to wait to see the final consumption numbers and how the last two months and the month of November compare before drawing firm conclusions.
Remember, we did see a massive jump in sales of a range of products from cars to white goods, but sales had also slowed down earlier between August 15th and September 22nd, the latter being the day the new and lower goods and services tax rates had kicked in. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg report says that spending between September 22nd and October 21st, which is the period between Navratri and Diwali, increased about 8.5% from the same time last year, according to data from retail intelligence platform Bizom. Sales across the country topped about 600,000 crore rupees or $67 billion, with items like jewellery, electronics, apparel, furnishings, and sweets most in demand, according to the National President of the Confederation of All India Traders.
The government had cut goods and services tax from September 22nd for almost 400 categories of products. Car makers like Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, and Mahindra and all saw a jump in monthly sales after that major tax cut made cars, particularly at the entry level, much cheaper. And Indian markets were up on Monday after a two-day losing streak last week and ended higher, but after a choppy session.
The Sensex was up 39 points to close at 83,978. The Nifty 50 was up 41 points to close at 25,763. The broader indices were up too.
The Nifty Mid-Cap was up 0.77% and the Nifty Small Cap was up 0.72%. So the question is, will India join the global rally? Well, there are no real signs of that now, because among other things, it's been a seven-month rally in global equities, which may still have room to run given that November is already starting on a positive note. That's mostly on Wall Street. The US boom is of course being driven largely by big tech and the artificial intelligence euphoria, and of course, chip giant Nvidia, which is worth about $5 trillion, which is, if one can compare apples and oranges for a moment, more than the GDP of India.
Markets also tend to be oblivious to the real economy and the world oftentimes. In the US, Bloomberg report says that the government shutdown has become painfully real for millions of Americans over the weekend as it hit the one-month mark, adding that food aid has been disrupted, cuts to childcare has kicked in, and health insurance premiums are spiking. Flight disruptions have emerged as a flashpoint with traffic controller shortages snarling flights.
And back home amongst company results, Airtel sprang a surprise of sorts. Telecom giant Bharti Airtel reported a consolidated net profit of about 6,700 crores for the second quarter, up almost 90% from the same quarter last year. Sequentially, profit increased about 14%.
Consolidated revenue from operations was at about 52,000 crores, up 25% year-on-year and about 5.5% sequentially. Driven, as the company said in a release to the stock exchanges, by strong momentum in both India and Africa. Average revenue per user, which is the number which everyone looks out for, was up close to 10% to 256 rupees during the quarter from 233 rupees in the same quarter last year.
All of this goes back to where we started, the narrative on earnings being stronger or better in the last quarter and also demonstrates both the diversity of geographies some Indian companies operate in and the nature of the businesses and I guess the relative resilience. Elsewhere, we haven't touched upon oil for a few days. Prices were little changed despite news that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus plans to end its supply increases.
And the markets are now fearing a supply glut and weak factory data in Asia. Brent crude futures were at about $64.76 a barrel on Monday morning, according to figures from Reuters. Meanwhile, another Reuters report says India's power output fell at the fastest pace last month since the pandemic as subdued industrial activity and unusually wet weather, which we're also seeing right here in Mumbai, dented electricity demand and reduced cooling needs.
And elsewhere, India's manufacturing activity gained momentum in October as domestic demand strengthened, offsetting a slowdown in export growth, according to a business survey on Monday, which is the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index or PMI, which is compiled by S&P Global, which rose to 59.2 in October from 57.7 in September.
Banking System Liquidity
Liquidity in India's banking system has fluctuated between surplus and deficit over the last two weeks, affecting bond market sentiment, according to a Reuters report. The Reserve Bank on Friday cancelled an auction of about Rs 110 billion or about Rs 11,000 crore in seven-year government securities, triggering a seven-basis-point drop in the benchmark bond yield.
Traders told Reuters that things have changed sharply within a few days and what they thought would be a continued bull run turned out to be a short-lived phenomenon, which must be worrying for them, that is, the Reserve Bank, and could have led to the Friday's auction cancellation. Traders also told Reuters that the central bank may be concerned about prevailing yield levels.
India-US Trade
India's exports to the United States fell almost 37 percent between May and September 2025, as steep hikes imposed by the Trump administration hit profit margins across industries, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative.
The report said that India's shipments to its largest export market fell from $8.8 billion in May to $5.5 billion in September, representing one of the short-term declines in recent years. According to the GTRI, U.S. duty started at 10 percent in April, rose to 25 percent in early August, and peaked at 50 percent by the end of August, hitting a wide range of Indian exports. Goods that were previously tariff-free, that was nearly one-third of India's total exports to the U.S., were hit hardest, falling about 47 percent from $3.4 billion to $1.8 billion in the same period.
The biggest setbacks, quite interestingly, came from India's smartphone and pharmaceutical industries, which actually do not face tariffs right now. Smartphone exports, which had risen about 197 percent in the corresponding period last year, fell 58 percent from about $2.3 billion in May to about $880 million in September, with shipments falling steadily each month. The GTRI said that the reasons for this sharp decline are not clear and warrant further investigation.
Similarly, pharmaceutical exports fell about 16 percent from $745 million to $628 million, while industrial metals and auto components, which are subject to uniform global tariffs, fell about 17 percent. I reached out to Ajay Srivastava, founder of the GTRI, based out of New Delhi, and began by asking him, first, how India benefited or not from U.S. President Donald Trump's recent Asia visit and the signing of several deals with several countries, including China, which now faces, as we said earlier, a lower tariff barrier into the United States than earlier and, of course, against India.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Ajay Srivastava: So, I don't see it making any impact on Indian exports. Why? Let's compare China and India's performance to U.S. markets in the past for five months. If I compare the exports of China in May to U.S. to the September exports of China to U.S., then the export rise is about 19%. In this period, while despite all the U.S. tariffs and so many other restrictions, China exports to U.S. grew continuously at the rate of 20% in just four months' time. It's a big achievement.
And during this period, May to September, our exports have fallen by 37.5%. So, this is when China had slightly higher tariffs. Now, they have 10% less. So, I don't think it will have any positive or negative impact of this.
And the reason is very clear in my mind. The things with China are mostly exports to U.S. There is no comparison with any other country. They are almost a monopoly supplier on those items.
Whereas India's exports are coming down because of high tariffs, while our competitors like Bangladesh, Vietnam, they're facing lower. China is beyond, almost beyond, game of death. India is very much into the game.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. Now, let's pick up the India-U.S. part for a moment. The study that you've done has said that basically shipments have fallen from about $8.8 billion in May, that's a month after the tariff regime was announced, to $5.5 billion in September. And this, you've said, is also one of the sharpest short-term declines in recent years. So, where is this impact mostly being felt or on which industries and to what extent?
Ajay Srivastava: We started paying this additional term tariff from April 2. So, April 2 to August 6, we were paying 10% extra. August 7 to August 27, we were paying 25% extra.
And August 28 onwards, we are paying 50%. I am telling you this, September is the first full month where we paid 50% tariff. And the results are before us that between August and September, fall is about 20%.
So, item-wise, we have grouped the items into three categories. First, there are certain items like pharmaceuticals, like smartphones, where tariffs are zero in the Trump regime. So, we expect that the export in this category should not fall because there is no tariff.
But the fall is the highest in this category. The fall in this category accounts for one-third of India's exports to the US, led by smartphones and pharmaceuticals. But the fall is 47%, which I don't understand right now.
I need to dig deeper. I could try to find out, but I could not lay my hands on it. Smartphone exports, they have done exceedingly well in the past.
For example, between April-September 2024 to April-September 2025, there was a 197% rise. But this monthly rise stopped in May this year. So, May to June, exports have come down.
June to July further came down. July to August further came down. August, steady fall is there.
So, May $2.9 billion, September $885 million. Total fall about more than 55%. I don't know why it's happening.
Govindraj Ethiraj: In the last year, say before May, would it have been averaging around $2 billion smartphone exports per month?
Ajay Srivastava: To the US, it was about $1.5 billion, I can say simply.
Govindraj Ethiraj: The reason I'm asking is, was May an outlier?
Ajay Srivastava: It was around that only. It was rising and rising only.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Okay. And you said the pharmaceuticals is the other interesting category where again, exports have shrunk despite not being any or not facing any import tariffs.
Ajay Srivastava: So, pharmaceutical exports, pharmaceutical products, 15.7% decline is there. I don't understand why. In between, you must have seen that Trump has announced so many tariffs on pharma.
He didn't, of course, implement it. But we don't know the reason right now. So, not read, I tried to speak to the experts, but nobody's forthcoming with the reasons.
So, category A accounts for one third of the exports to the US. And max fall is there, which is surprising. I have yet to understand the reason.
I don't understand the reason. Then there is category B, where all of the world faces the same tariffs. These are like Section 232 tariffs on steel, copper, aluminium, some of the auto components.
Here fall is 16.7%. I can explain the fall. It's because of high tariffs, US investments plans have been delayed. And that's why lower buying is there from all of the world, not only from India.
That's why this fall. And the third category, which is the largest category, which accounts for 56, 57% of India's exports, mostly labour intensive exports, then the fall is 33.3%. And here, we see the sector wise fall is there. For example, gems and jewellery 60%, they are down.
Lead chrome diamonds, which is a subcategory in the gems and jewellery, they're down by almost 90%. Polar panels are down by 60%. Textiles down by 37%.
Garments 44%. Chemicals 35%. Marine products, which is mostly Vanamish, 51%.
Then agriculture, coffee, tea, spices 40%, processed food 35%, so on. So the fall is all around. And this was expected.
Exports could hold till the tariff for 25%. But between 25% to 50% in labour intensive sectors, difficult. So the fall is expected in the labour intensive sectors.
It will continue the labour intensive sectors. Only thing we have to understand is why the tariff exempt sector fall is there. And second, can we do something to arrest this fall?
Govindraj Ethiraj: Do you have a sense on what the impact is on any one of these industries? Like for example, if you take gems and jewellery or apparel, you know, what does $1 billion reduction in export value do to the industry or to the companies within that?
Ajay Srivastava: So the reports are coming that in Surat, thousands of layoffs have been there. But I could not verify those figures. Many anecdotal evidences are there.
Orders are not coming. So labourers have been asked to go on hold. There are job losses.
But concrete figures, I could not lay my hands on though. That's why I'm not talking about concrete figures.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. But when you say that there is a 33% drop, for example, in labour intensive industries, that means that there was 33% less production or as much production as before, but no exports are picked up.
Ajay Srivastava: See, labour intensive sectors, you know, the exports are 20% of our GDP. Exports to US are just 20% of our total merchandise exports. So 4% of GDP.
And if those exports are down by, say, 37.5% or 40%, then we can say that 5% to 10% labourers in these labour intensive sectors may be facing employment pressure.
Govindraj Ethiraj: And you talked about, you know, what we can do here on. What could we do?
Ajay Srivastava: Mr. Trump announced this 50% tariff for the first time on July 31st, when he introduced the tariffs on Russian oil, 25%. So we have been knowing that the US is going to charge 50% on us right from July 31st. We should have announced some measures.
I'm told that the government is working to certain measures. But the sad thing is that we have many schemes like interest equalisation scheme. The scheme allows an exporter concessional rates of loans for processing of an export order.
If I get an export order, then I can get a loan to buy my raw material, process it and export it. I get that concessional tariff loan, concession about 5% to 7%. So most of the MSMEs were using this.
And we had this scheme for the past decade. But now this year, that scheme has not been revived. This year we needed it most.
This should be revived immediately. We were continuing for more than a decade. Now it's no more there.
The year it is most needed. Second is market access initiative scheme. You know, government pays money to small exporters to attend trade fairs abroad, because that's the place where you get most export orders.
This scheme was available for the past 30 years. This year, even no money has been allocated for this scheme so far. So even the scheme, these two schemes which were available for a long period and this year they are needed most, they are not available.
So I'm sure government is working on these things. And I think in a day or two or within a week, we expect something good is being announced.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. Just one supplemental question to this. Why were these schemes discontinued?
Ajay Srivastava: No idea. It's like bureaucratic allocation and allocations have not been made. Reasons are in the budget, some announcement was there that government is playing a big export mission. But so far, it is only on the paper.
We have not seen anything on the ground.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Mr. Srivastava, thank you so much for joining me.
Ajay Srivastava: Thanks for inviting me.
Canada Cracks Down
About 74 percent of Indian applications for permits to study at Canadian post-secondary institutions in August, the most recent month for which data is available, were rejected, compared to about 32 percent in August 2023, according to Immigration Department data pulled out by Reuters. Canada has also lowered the number of international student permits it issues for the second year in a row in early 2025 as part of a larger effort to reduce the number of temporary migrants and address fraud related to student visas. About 40 percent of study permit applications overall in each of these months were refused.
About 24 percent of Chinese study permits in August 2025 were rejected. So, the larger point also is that it's not just United States which is more visibly pushing back on students from countries like India, though not only India, but it's also other countries, and something that we've pointed out in the core report, and that includes Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, all of which have been favoured destinations for Indian students heading out for both undergrad or predominantly now undergrad and, of course, other courses. The Canada data says that the number of Indian applicants has also dropped from about 20,900 in August 2023 to about 4,500 in August 2025.
India has been Canada's top source of international students over the past decade. In August, it also had the highest study permit refusal of any country with more than 1,000 approved applicants, according to Reuters. In 2023, Canadian authorities apparently uncovered nearly 1,550 study permit applications linked to fraudulent letters of acceptance, most of which originated from India.
And last year, its beefed-up verification system, according to the Reuters report, detected more than 14,000 potentially fraudulent letters of acceptance from all applicants. Canada's foreign affairs minister, Anita Anand, told Reuters last month in India that Canada's government is concerned about the integrity of its immigration system but wants to continue having Indian students in Canada.
And The Big News Of The Week…
India showered tributes on India's women cricketers following their historic triumph in the World Cup final on Sunday in Mumbai. After having lost in the finals of the 2005 and 2017 World Cups of the 50-over-1-day series, India beat South Africa by 52 runs to get their first title in Navi Mumbai's D.Y. Patil Stadium. Amazingly, the Indian team had actually lost three games in a row earlier in the same tournament before jumping back or rather roaring back into the semi-finals where they pulled off a record chase to beat seven-time champion Australia.
The Indian Cricket Board announced the team would receive a reward of about 51 crore rupees or about 5.8 million dollars for their title triumph. I reached out to veteran sports journalist, author and commentator Ayaz Mehman and I began by asking him if it was fair to say that Indian women's cricket had gone from being acknowledged and noticed to truly being celebrated.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Ayaz Memon: It would be a fair comment. Transformation was taking place ever since the Women's Premier League also started. I mean, on a much smaller scale than the IPL.
But the fact that the Women's Premier League got going, you had international stars coming in to play for various teams, very few teams compared to the IPL as I mentioned. But there was a lot of traction that was happening and that was reflected not only in the all-to-all kind of coverage, but also in the crowds that came to the stadiums to watch these girls play. That suggested or that showed that there was a desire to watch women's cricket at a far larger and a grander scale.
And I think that is going to be transformed even further after this magnificent success.
Govindraj Ethiraj: And what was the tipping point as if there was one which turned the crowds or rather brought the crowds into the stadiums the way you describe it?
Ayaz Memon: Well, I think the fact is that the Indian women's cricket team has been doing really well for the past decade, if not a little longer. The change really happened was when women's cricket in India got integrated with the BCCI. Remember before that, this was I think 2006-07 when Sharath Pawar was the BCCI chief.
Before that, the Women's Cricket Association of India was a separate entity, a separate body, which was struggling for finances, infrastructure, practise opportunities, matches, very little monetary rewards for the players, if any at all. And the minute they got merged with the BCCI, everything started falling in place. Not everything was rewarding, richly rewarding in terms of money or opportunities immediately.
But in the period since, which is almost now about 20 years, a lot of changes have taken place. India has been playing far more international cricket. And then, of course, the big, big jump ahead or upwards was the start of the Women's Premier League, which is, in a sense, a clone of the IPL.
But hey, it's an independent kind of vertical for women's cricket in itself. And that has taken on, you know, it's kind of zoomed ahead quite remarkably.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Who gets credit for building up Women's Premier League in this form and manner that we see today?
Ayaz Memon: I think you have to give credit to the BCCI, because what they've done very successfully, they've shown the inclination to promote, propagate, and look after the welfare of the players, promote and propagate the women's team. And in the WPL, what you've got is the big dads of IPL also buying these WPL teams. For instance, Mumbai Indians has a men's section as well as a women's section, and so on and so forth.
So not all the teams have been bought by existing IPL teams. But you know, there is a fair amount of intersection or crossholding, if I might put it that way. So that's given women's cricket a lot of leverage.
And the financial rewards have also started kind of, you know, matching, not entirely in terms of money that the IPL stars earn. But the other big change which has happened before, I forget the government is that there's no pay parity. So what a Virat Kohli or Rohit Sharma earn from playing on ODI is pretty much or exactly the same as what Harmanpreet Kaur or Smriti Mandana or Yamima Rodericks would earn.
So that has added a lot to the self-esteem of the players, as well as the confidence. And obviously, that is then, you know, you have to go out and seek that money in the market. So sponsors, if they are willing, and companies are willing to back these women or these girls, then it shows that, you know, it's on a pretty robust path towards financial independence also going ahead.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And I'm going to come to the match in specific and the pipeline of new players in a moment. But, you know, on Monday, we saw the main newspapers with, you know, full page advertisements, you know, of various products and celebrating or toasting the victory and the players.
Obviously, they were prepared for it in some way, because this was obviously done at midnight. But do you think that this is turning point from the advertiser point of view as well, either because they're also looking for newer avenues to invest in and this is it?
Ayaz Memon: Yes. And I think this is something new, which has emerged, you know, while women's cricket has been around for a fair while, technically for over 50 years. The first international that, you know, Indian women's cricket team played was way back in 1976.
But the five decades since then have been a long, torturous journey, very frustrating at times. Things have changed since then. I think that, yes, sponsorship coming in, it's all tied in with the broadcast deals that happen, the sponsorship deals that come in.
And it was pumped up. See, remember, this is an ICC World Cup, it was a mega event. And the fact that the Indian cricket team had been doing well, was a serious challenger, perhaps the biggest challenger to the Aussies, the Australians who have been dominating the sport for so long, I think, just added a lot more passion and interest into what the Indian women's cricket team would do.
I see that continuing. But obviously, results will determine and obviously, the health of the game and the economy will, you know, how the finances play out or the, you know, the money factor plays out in the women's game going ahead.
Govindraj Ethiraj: As I saw your piece written for the BBC, where you talked about the five moments that defined India's women's World Cup glory. And you've talked about that famous catch, Amanjot's tumbling catch, which ended Walwart's charge. You've talked about Jemima's dazzling century.
Is there a theme that binds all of this? I mean, all of these stunning performances?
Ayaz Memon: I think the desire to do well, capture the imagination, I mean, they have captured the imagination. But a title, an ICC title has been eluding the Indian team for a fair while. This was the third ODI World Cup final that the Indian team was participating in.
2005, they lost to Australia. 2007, they lost to England. 2022, they didn't even get into the finals.
In the T20 World Cup, they lost to Australia in 2020. So India been there and thereabouts, but not reaching the pinnacle. This was manifest in the desire and that was really seen in the way the Indian women fielded.
I mean, they could almost feel that this was not a bunch of women fielding on the cricket field. It was these great athletes who jumped in. There were some chances missed and all that.
But Amanjot Kaur, a 25-year-old from Punjab, whose father is a carpenter, look at that background and then the desire and then the expertise. And she clutched onto that ball as if her life depended on it. And it actually depended, the final depended on taking that catch because Walwart was going great guns at that point in time.
Jemima Rodrigues, she played in innings of a lifetime in the semifinal against Australia. And Deepti Sharma, great all-around performances in the semifinal and the final. Armanpreet Kaur using gut instinct to bring on Shefali Verma to bowl.
I mean, all these things add up. The steely nerves, the great desire, the gut instinct, and then of course, the expertise with which they all played and won the trophy.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Thank you so much for joining me and sharing your thoughts.
Ayaz Memon: Thank you.
