Why Is HSBC Overweight On India?
While earnings growth expectations can fall a little further from here on, HSBC believes that valuations are no longer a concern
On Episode 687 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Poorva Chothani, Founder and Managing Partner - U.S. and Indian Immigration Law at LawQuest as well as Deepak Ballani, Director General at Indian Sugar Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA).
SHOW NOTES
(00:00) The Take
(06:07) Why is HSBC overweight on India?
(09:33) Indian refiners are boosting oil and gas exports to highest levels in recent years
(10:49) In all the ethanol blending controversy, we forgot to ask, how are the producers of ethanol doing?
(21:16) How grim is the global visa situation for Indian students and professionals?
NOTE: This transcript contains the host's monologue and includes interview transcripts by a machine. Human eyes have gone through the script but there might still be errors in some of the text, so please refer to the audio in case you need to clarify any part. If you want to get in touch regarding any feedback, you can drop us a message on [email protected].
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Good morning, it's Thursday, the 25th of September and this is Govindraj Ethiraj broadcasting and streaming weekdays from Mumbai, India's financial capital and it was a bright, nice, sunny day on Wednesday. Now…
The Take
(which is not so sunny)
In a changing world order, students and parents must revisit foreign degrees.
An Indian researcher said in a LinkedIn post recently that after 14 years of navigating the US visa system, he finally became a permanent resident there. Green card in hand, after 14 years, the visa clock has stopped ticking. The Hindustan Times, which usually finds a similar story of struggle and despair every other day, quoted the researcher as saying.
Now the researcher in question provides all the excruciating details of his journey, including the many types of visas he has applied for and not applied for. And the other stories in the same vein, which are clearly providing search engine optimization or SEO glory right now for publishers, are the ones about US B1, B2 tourist cum business visas, which are being denied. Now those denied visas range from professionals to families and even government officials would land up at the interview counter with reams of paperwork only to be sent back without that prized US visa.
Several newspapers and websites now catalogue these stories faithfully and highlighting the stories mostly pulled from LinkedIn and Facebook confessions is obviously good for eyeballs. And that's because people are reading them. Now you may not be lining up for a US visa right now, but there is something evocative about these human stories of our countrymen wanting to visit the United States, if only for a vacation and being denied that opportunity.
Because among other things, they are people like us. An unconfirmed estimate says, Indian applicants experienced a refusal rate of approximately 27 to 30% for US B1, B2 visas in 2024. And that figure was apparently better than the previous year.
The most common reason for rejection of a US B1, B2 tourist visa is failure to prove strong ties to the home country, which falls under section 214B of the US Immigration and Nationality Act. But that's precisely what many Indians want to do, which is to migrate, if not now, then later. But the US is not the only country rejecting visas to Indians.
Around one in six applications to visit Europe or the Shenzhen region were rejected last year. India was also the third largest source of Shenzhen visa applications in 2024, submitting about 1.1 million requests, according to data released by the European Commission in May this year. Of these, some 936,000 were granted, 165,000 were refused, putting the rejection rate at 15%.
While visiting for tourism or business is not the same as going to study or to work, the visa approval overview now appears to follow a common thread. This is most visible in the United States where interviewees are now subject to what is known as extreme vetting. The Indian government revealed in March that the total number of students going abroad has fallen by 15% in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Canada saw the steepest decline with numbers dropping 41%, the UK at 27, and the US at 13. Meanwhile, interest in countries like Germany, France, and Italy has grown, according to that report, which is, of course, not surprising. Now, there is no doubt whatsoever that all these numbers, refusals and denials, will increase in 2025, even though countries like Germany, for example, are putting out an olive branch.
We must accept that we are going to be seeing more visa stories in the media because of the angst around immigration in the United States, or for that matter, even the UK, Canada, and Australia. And then there is the latest H-1B 100,000 visa fee issue where we're all forced to feel sorry for the plight of a few 100,000 wannabe US citizens in the guise of saving our IT services industry. But having said all of that, there is no doubt that statistically 2025 will be worse than previous years.
Now, much has been written about how parents are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars for their children to get undergraduate degrees with the hope of a master's degree or a job in the Americas, which in turn does not always materialise. Students will find it tougher to study in the United States now and in coming years. This may also be the case with Europe and preferred countries, but since the Shenzhen area has always been miserly with its visa issues, discussion is somewhat limited.
But more importantly, we have to address and counsel students in their earlier years on what education options really could be. I can see around me that by the time students reach 11th grade, they're already planning a life outside. Parents appear to have limited choice in the matter, particularly if they can somewhat afford those fees.
There is also considerable peer pressure, and it starts much earlier, including in the chosen form of school systems like the IB or International Baccalaureate system. The world order is changing. Students and parents have to revisit their education preferences much earlier and not aim for the US or Canada as a primary source and not rush to Germany, for instance, just because a window has opened up, particularly if that was not the original plan.
The problem, of course, is also that there are limited opportunities, for example, for humanities students in India. This is changing, but maybe not fast enough. Many business leaders have already recognised this as an opportunity to set up high-calibre universities.
They've also noted that good quality humanities education in India can hold back students, and that's already happening. We've seen in recent years that students have preferred to go on to, let's say, an Ashoka University, Flame, CREA, or Jindal, and there are many more, than go overseas. But the bottom line is, more than parents, it is students who must realise where their near future lies, whether they want to go overseas to study right now or to work later, for example, through the H-1B route.
While they should surely explore studying overseas, they can surely wait a few more years, as their predecessors have done. Maybe the rupee will be stronger by then as well.
And that brings us to the top stories and themes.
Why is HSBC overweight in India?
Indian refiners are boosting gasoline exports to the highest levels in recent years.
In all the ethanol blending controversy, we forgot to ask, how are the producers of ethanol doing?
And how grim is the global visa situation for Indian students and professionals, even as the H-1B controversy simmers?
HSBC Is Overweight
Usually it's when the markets are down and searching for direction, is when we see a report saying the future looks quite bright.
Now, this is not to say this is deliberate, but usually it's how it seems to happen. Analysts at HSBC, led by the head of equity strategy for Asia Pacific, have upgraded India's stock markets to overweight rating from neutral earlier. While earnings growth expectations can fall a little further from here on, HSBC believes that valuations are no longer a concern.
And that is interesting to note. They also feel that government policy is becoming a positive factor for equities, even as most foreign funds are lightly positioned. We think Indian equities now look attractive on a regional basis and upgrade the market to overweight from neutral.
As in China, US tariffs will have little impact on the profits of most listed companies in stark contrast to the crowded trades in Korea and Taiwan. India is Asia's quiet corner, HSBC's equity strategy headset. Within the Asian region, HSBC believes investors prefer to play the AI theme in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, which have, as they said, become crowded trades.
They also feel that valuations have run up in Japan and the weaker yen has supported equities. China, however, still remains on investors' radars despite higher valuations. That's relative.
With Chinese retail investors sitting on $22 trillion in cash, some of which is being gradually reallocated to stocks, HSBC feels Chinese equities will grind slowly higher. On the other hand, the usual writer of sober reports, Kodak Institutional Equities, says they see limited headroom in the next 12 to 15 months with earnings growth being partly offset by lower multiples. Analysts at KIE expect net profit of the Nifty 50 Index to grow 9% in 25-26 and 18% in 26-27.
Earnings, they believe, can grow at 14% 27-28. So there is higher growth, but that's coming later. They also say that they expect some stability in earnings after large downgrades over the past 12 to 15 months and strong growth in earnings in 26-27.
That's 18% for the Nifty 50 Index and 17% for the stocks that Kodak Institutional Investors track. So because of all this, in general and not necessarily specific, Indian stock markets stayed with selling pressure for the fourth consecutive day at the Sensex falling 386 points down to 81,716. And the Nifty 50 closed 113 points to 25,057.
The broader market also was down with the Nifty mid-cap falling 0.9% and the Nifty small-cap 0.6%. The rupee was flat on Wednesday thanks to likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, which may have taken the pressure off. The concerns are the same U.S. tariffs and the visa fee hikes. That's the 100,000 visa fee hike on Indian professionals going to the United States to work.
The rupee closed at Rs.88.69 against the U.S. dollar, slightly away from its all-time low of Rs.88.79 hit on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Reuters also told Reuters, the central bank mostly intervened across segments such as non-deliverable forwards, currency futures, and the OTC spot market to help support the rupee.
Refiners Up Exports
Indian oil refiners are increasing gasoline and diesel exports to their highest levels in several years, driven by expanded crude processing capacity and increased domestic ethanol blending that has freed up fuel supplies for overseas markets, traders and analysts told Reuters.
Refiners in India source about a third of their crude from Russia and are now boosting runs and redirecting surplus barrels abroad. This rise in exports would also help meet Europe's winter heating oil demand and support Indian refining margins after refiners turned to discounted Russian crude and when Europe and the U.S. imposed sanctions on Moscow after it invaded Ukraine in February 2022. As we know, the U.S. and President Trump have accused India of profiteering by importing Russian oil at lower prices and reselling that refined fuel at higher rates.
India, of course, has said that these purchases have stabilised markets and also that the U.S. had blessed it to do so in the previous or under the previous government. This year, India's crude processing is expected to increase by about 130,000 to 160,000 barrels per day to about 5.5 million barrels per day with gasoline exports hitting a record high of around 400,000 barrels per day, according to consultancy Wood McKinsey quoted by Reuters.
Ethanol Prices
In all the ethanol blending controversy, that's the controversy of blending ethanol with petrol, which a lot of consumers are saying is reducing the efficacy and the mileage of their vehicles. Not much attention has been paid to another interesting point, which is that producers of ethanol in India are not happy with the prices that they're being paid for it. And they're also threatened with imports at lower prices, including from the U.S. The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association, or ISMA, the representative body of sugar mills and ethanol manufacturers, is seeking a revision in ethanol prices to make ethanol production viable.
It wants the government to revise ethanol procurement price in a way that it corresponds with the latest Fair and Remunerative Price, or FRP, announced by the government for sugarcane. While ethanol and sugar prices indicate the revenue of sugar mills, FRP is the main cost they need to incur to procure the raw material. They also feel that importing ethanol at lower duties from the U.S., a possibility now under a potential new bilateral trade deal, could lead to losses and underutilisation of domestic ethanol production capacity, much of which was created only in recent years in the promise of Indian oil refineries buying ethanol for blending.
I reached out to Deepak Ballani, Director General of the ISMA, and I began by asking him how he was reading the current situation.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Deepak Ballani: So as far as the sugarcane industry is concerned, when the entire ethanol programme started, it was the sugarcane industry which was the backbone of the entire ethanol industry. And we have seen how ethanol has changed the life of farmers in the country, specifically the sugarcane farmers. The cane areas which we used to see way back 5-10 years back are no longer there thanks to the ethanol blending programme.
And the entire programme success has been on the background of a very consistent and a very conducive policy by the government. Whenever there was an increase in the FRP, that is the cane payment the sugar mills are supposed to make to the farmers, there was a corresponding increase in the ethanol price. Obviously, because when the raw material cost was high, and also the conversion cost because of the inflation, the price of the ethanol for all the three feedstock, that is the cane juice, the B heavy molasses and the C heavy molasses were revised by the government.
But unfortunately, for the last three years, in spite of the fact that the FRP has been increased by almost 17% to almost 355 rupees per quintal, there has not been any corresponding increase in the price of ethanol. And that is really hitting the viability, the economic viability of the mills. And somewhere, if this continues, it will somewhere have a negative effect on the industry, also erode our profitability, which may, I'm just saying, may also lead to slower payment or a problem in the cane payments, the farmers going forward.
So for almost five years, the government has followed a formula by which ethanol prices were increased or corrected whenever there was a FRP increase. So there is a bit of a mismatch, there is a misalignment. And we believe the government is actually very concerned with that particular thing.
And going forward, next year seems to be a very good season for the sugar industry. We have estimated almost 35 million tonnes of sugar production, and our domestic consumption is only around 28.4. So it is very important for us to divert almost 5 million tonnes to ethanol. And for that the price is required.
Because if the diversion doesn't happen, that means it will create more sugar in the country, which may lead to downward pressure on the sugar prices, again, hitting the viability of the mills. So I believe ethanol price revision is of the utmost importance for the industry as of now.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And if I can ask you for a little bit of a background for every mill that produces either sugar or ethanol, I mean, it's the same mill broadly, what's the split today? And how has that changed?
Deepak Ballani: As of now, this year in 2024-25, the ethanol season will get over on 31st of October, we would be diverting almost 3.4 million tonnes. Next year, the diversion would be around 5 million tonnes. Next year, we are also hoping that the sugar industry will give around 4.5 to 5 billion litres of ethanol to the OMCs.
Govindraj Ethiraj: So when you said 3.4 million tonnes of diversion, that's about 10% of total throughput?
Deepak Ballani: Yes. So if you consider almost 10 to 15%, that varies on the sugarcane production. So next year, if I am projecting almost 35 million, so almost 5 million of my sugar will be diverted to ethanol.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Okay, I'll come back to the price in a second. But one of the issues I guess that you're faced with is that grain-based ethanol has really become much bigger, which is over 70% now, as opposed to maybe a few years ago, where sugarcane-based ethanol was the dominant form of ethanol.
Deepak Ballani: In 2023-2024, way back in December 2023, there was a sudden restriction on diversion of sugar to ethanol because the government expected and anticipated a lower production of sugar. And that is why the diversion from B heavy and juice was to some extent curtailed. And because of that, the grain ethanol supply was much more than the sugar.
This year also, the grain supply is even higher. But going forward, I believe there will be a 50-50 share of both sugar and ethanol. Because if you see the capacity of sugar ethanol today, we have the capacity of producing almost 9 billion litres of ethanol.
And with almost 85-90% efficiency, we can easily supply around 7 billion litres of ethanol. But for E20, the government requires almost 12-12.5 billion litres. And if I'm correct, then the government is also thinking of going ahead with flexible and smart hybrid vehicles, which may enhance the consumption of ethanol.
So going forward, I believe a 50-50 share between sugar and grain ethanol is something we are looking forward to. I believe the government is also aware of this fact.
Govindraj Ethiraj: You're saying that if next year, let's say the government goes to about 12-12.5 billion litres, you're in a position to supply almost 60-70% of that?
Deepak Ballani: No, I said we will be supplying almost 5 billion litres, which could perhaps be around 45-50%.
Govindraj Ethiraj: That is right now. But you're saying that from a capacity point of view, you could ramp up?
Deepak Ballani: Yes, for the capacity, we already have the capacity. So if the government decides to go in for a flexible vehicle or a smart hybrid, which may perhaps enhance the consumption, we have the capacity of even supplying more ethanol to the market.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. Now, a few years ago, again, maybe about six or seven years ago, the industry had also invested a lot in ethanol capacity. That was in anticipation of what?
Deepak Ballani: See, the sugar industry has invested almost 40,000 crore rupees in putting the ethanol capacities in the country. That is perhaps in anticipation that our entire stock will be taken by the OMCs. That time it was also, there was an offtake mechanism.
There was a price administrator vacancy. So we expected that the government will follow the formula, which perhaps they have followed for five years. And that perhaps I feel that was also the basis of the investment of the guaranteed offtake mechanism and a right price recovery mechanism.
So I believe the government should now perhaps go back to their own earlier policy, where they revised the price or corrected the price based on the increase in the FRP.
Govindraj Ethiraj: You know, so the oil marketing companies and the refineries are buying ethanol from the sugar producers. The sugar, of course, is controlled as prices are controlled by the government. So why is it that the ethanol, which is bought by oil marketing companies, has a controlled price, which is similar to sugar, which I can understand the reasons for prices being controlled?
Deepak Ballani: See, the entire sector is a regulated sector. Both the sugar is totally controlled by the government.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Yeah, and that I understand. Why is ethanol also controlled? Because that's being bought by refiners who are selling mostly at market, aren't they?
Deepak Ballani: See, OMCs are basically buying ethanol. And perhaps it is important to see that we also have a component of FRP. So that FRP has to be given to the farmer.
So we need a price of FRP plus the conversion cost so that our mills are viable. And that is why there has to be a proper pricing mechanism, which takes care of my gain payment as well as conversion cost. If perhaps we don't have this, then there is a real danger of basically having our economic viability also in question.
So that is why the entire control of the government on the price was defined so that the mills are able to realise both the gain cost and also the conversion cost.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And last question. So if you were to look at the prices right now, what would you think would be an ideal price for ethanol, which would make it, let's say, more remunerative for sugar mills?
Deepak Ballani: See, we have calculated the cost of production. Now, cost of production, there is a proper formula of how to actually go in for a cost of production. So our gain cost plus our chemical cost, conversion cost, if you talk about gain, juice, ethanol, the cost of production is coming to around 71 rupees per litre.
But as far as the B heavy is concerned, it is coming to around 66 rupees per litre. And C heavy is almost 60 rupees per litre, which is almost 5 rupees less than the current cost. But if you take the formula, the cost as per the formula is much more than what I just mentioned.
Govindraj Ethiraj: And what price are you getting right now from the OMCs or the government?
Deepak Ballani: So the price for P heavy is around 62.5 and for juice is around 65.5, which is almost 5, 5.5 rupees less than the cost of production.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. I think that that puts things in context. Deepak, we've run out of time. Thank you so much for joining me.
Deepak Ballani: Yeah. Thank you. Thank you, Govind.
Visa Woes
Getting student and professional visas is getting tougher for Indians for almost all the countries that they really want to go to.
The U.S. is a prime example, and the numbers for 2025 are undoubtedly going to be much lower than previous years. But it would also appear that it's not going to be any easier or simpler going overseas for work or study in many other countries. I reached out to immigration lawyer Purvi Chattani, the founder and managing partner of Lockwest, an immigration and employment law firm in Mumbai and also in the U.S., and I began by asking her how she was seeing the overall visa situation into the U.S. for students and professionals, even as the H-1B visa issue was simmering in the background.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Poorvi Chothani: So the situation is really not that good for two three reasons. One is because they've stopped the drop box facility for people who've already been issued a visa and are just trying to renew it. That facility has gone.
Visa appointments are very hard to come by as it is and now with this drop box gone it's become even harder. Our student visas also are not readily available. We've got students who are starting in January in the spring term and we're not able to find visas for them and also the interview process has become much more stringent because of President Trump's dictate to vet the visa applicants.
So they're all going through extreme vetting. They all have to give their social media handles. They've got to be more transparent about it.
The questioning is more intense though it is as short as before. The interviews are not longer. They're just sharper, more intense and with outcomes that if there was a little bit more time the applicants could have convinced the officer of their eligibility.
So the situation is not really good but that doesn't mean no visas are granted. They are being granted.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right and if you were to now look at visa approvals across the board , you know where students and professionals head typically, which is apart from the US they go to Canada, Australia, UK and many countries in Europe. How is it looking right now?
Poorvi Chothani: I don't think that the visa process for those countries has changed that much because those countries' processes are very document driven. So if you provide the government with the documents that build your case and show them that you're a bona fide student with access to money, your education sort of lines up with your career goals which you've described in your cover letter etc. Your chances of getting the visa are as good as before but you've got to really put in a lot of effort because those are paper-based visas while the US is an interview based visa process.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Okay that's interesting to know but the data however is showing that visa approvals particularly for students across that's Canada, Australia, UK and US have dropped in the last year.
Poorvi Chothani: Right so unfortunately or fortunately for me I don't track data. I only deal with the absolute numbers in our office and my goal is success for our clients. Not in a selfish way but we've got to focus our energy somewhere and we focus it on client success.
So I'm sorry I'm not up to date with the data.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right, so you're saying that you are not seeing any reduction in visa approvals in the US, I mean in Canada, Australia, UK for example?
Poorvi Chothani: Or the USA, no. No, as long as you put together a well-put application, the career goals are aligned with the education etc. We are seeing approvals.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Okay and you're saying that you're not seeing at least much of a difference between US and UK, Australia and so on?
Poorvi Chothani: In terms of numbers of approval yes. So if you look at it this way how many of our clients have been denied? I would say not so many.
Overall not so many really like a few you know you can count them on a hand.
Govindraj Ethiraj: And that would have happened in previous years as well?
Poorvi Chothani: Yes.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Okay how are things looking for professionals now to link it to H1B given that that window is closing in some ways or the other or will close further and professionals want to typically head out of India to work somewhere and maybe with an objective of staying on and so on. So how are you seeing that?
Poorvi Chothani: So over here we are seeing much more panic than ever before. Applicants are really really worried about what's going to happen. Some of them have been granted visas already.
I'm talking about the CAP H1B cases because their start date is October 1st. So many of them who've received approvals are getting their visas and now they're ready to travel. So we saw a lot of panic travelling over the weekend because they were all trying to get in before September 21st 12.01am. That was sheer panic but things have sort of slowed down now because there is clarity that people who are going with already approved petitions or already approved visas are not going to be subject to the 100,000 fee. There is no clarity whether it's going to apply to transfer. So let's say they arrive in the US and they want to change their employer. Will the new employer be subject to this because then it'll be counted as a new petition.
So there is no clarity on all those things. So overall with the people who are travelling also there's a lot of uncertainty and anxiety about the future because as it is life on an H1B was very precarious especially because if you're waiting for the green card it was precarious. It's just become more precarious now because even the regulations are not clear.
Earlier it was precarious just because of huge numbers and the long wait times but now it's precarious because of unclear laws, unclear and changing processes, criteria and many other things. So yes overall there's much more anxiety.
Govindraj Ethiraj: And how are you seeing professionals looking at other countries now? I mean they were not immediately rushed but a lot of professionals apply for jobs including in IT in the UK, in Europe and so many other countries. Are you seeing any trends there?
Poorvi Chothani: So what we are noticing is that there's just sort of a real slowdown in overall sponsorship of visa requiring employees. There's just an overall slowdown and I think everything is not just driven by nationalism and visa restrictions. Some of it is also driven by artificial intelligence and the prolific use of it at the entry-level jobs and the second-year jobs.
So I think the entire industry, all the industries that use intellectuals, I mean information technology, are in a position of wait and watch. They're all not sort of rushing to employ people to fill vacancies. There have been redundancies also in certain jurisdictions.
They're not going to fill those positions again and I think those have not been lost out to visa laws. They've been lost out to artificial intelligence.
Govindraj Ethiraj: And this you're saying is a global trend now. I mean at least all the countries that Indian professionals typically want to go to.
Poorvi Chothani: I think so. I think there is a general slowdown in sponsoring visas for foreigners.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right and what about students? I mean just to close as you know students are also looking or shopping around quite actively at this time to see what other options are there. So what other options are there if they don't want to stay or can't stay back in the country?
Poorvi Chothani: You know this situation is really pretty dire because there was no country that was accepting as many applicants as the United States except for let's say Canada. But even that I don't think was as popular a destination as was the United States. Though it was cheaper, it was attractive to some.
I think that the U.S. student visa situation is really a big dampener for people heading to the U.S. to study just now. I just did a webinar this afternoon and I have a sense that a lot of them have deferred their admission for later or are even putting the whole admission process on hold. Some of them are tying it to the current administration's term in power.
But overall there is a lot of anxiety and I also know of many people who had sort of applied in multiple countries including the United States and chose not to go to the United States because of current visa situations. They chose to go to the United Kingdom or Australia or Canada even though Canada is not as predictable a path as it used to be before. I mean things are not moving so rapidly over there as anti-visa policies as they are in the United States and the United States is loud and vocal about it so it's in the face.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. Poorvi, thank you so much for joining me.
Poorvi Chothani: Thank you.
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Germany wants to attract skilled Indian workers, its envoy said, as U.S. President Donald Trump's H-1B visa crackdown is sending panic waves through India's software industry, or more specifically, India's H-1B workers. Are migration policies reliable, modern, and predictable? Philipp Ackermann, Germany's ambassador to India and Bhutan, said in a video on his ex-account, he also said that we do not change our rules fundamentally overnight, and emphasised that Indians will find both stability and great opportunities in the European nation. That's Germany, according to a report on Bloomberg.
He also said Germany needs hundreds of thousands of immigrants a year to counter the negative impact from its ageing society, and he added that Indians are amongst the top earners in Germany. He says a high salary means Indians are contributing big time to our society and our welfare. Europe, particularly Germany, has emerged as a key destination for Indian talent.
Indians make up 13% of all international students in 2324, according to the German Academic Exchange Service, quoted by Bloomberg, and according to a study shared by the German embassy in India, at the beginning of this year, there were about 280,000 Indian nationals living in Germany as permanent residents. Now, the United States attracts almost six times as many Indian students. There were about 200,000 in 2024, but of course now that figure will steadily fall.
