Putin’s Visit Is An Opportunity For India To Reassert Strategic Autonomy
Putin’s India visit signals New Delhi’s refusal to bow to US pressure, focusing instead on defence, technology, and geopolitical advantage.
The Gist
Russian President Vladimir Putin's arrival in New Delhi for the 23rd annual summit highlights India's commitment to strategic autonomy despite US pressure.
- The US has imposed a punitive 25% tariff on Indian imports to curb Russian oil purchases.
- India's need for a multipolar world contrasts with US-China hegemony, enhancing its bargaining power.
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in New Delhi for the two nations’ 23rd annual summit, amidst American pressure on India to stop buying oil and weapons from Russia, and source such things from the US. The US has slapped a special, punitive tariff of 25% on imports from India, on top of a base layer of 25%, to pressure India to stop buying Russian oil. Such purchases, in the opinion of the US president, finance Russia’s war in Ukraine. This is one of the highest import levies on any major exporter to the US.
President Putin’s visit serves three purposes. By defying American and European expectations that India would resile from its stance of refusing to condemn Russia for the Ukraine war, and ignoring explicit pressure from the US to cut back relations with the US, New Delhi makes it clear that its strategic autonomy is not up for negotiation. While India values its ties with the US, it would not allow Washington to dictate India’s policy choices. Attempts to bully India would be ignored.
Long Defence Partnership
India and Russia have an ongoing defence partnership, which allows India to import high-end weapons from Russia, often accompanied by technology transfer. The S400 anti-missile system is one of the world’s most advanced and came in handy during the Operation Sindoor encounter with Pakistan. The Brahmos missiles, which proved their efficacy in the same operation, is produced in India in a joint venture with Russia.
Russia is likely to offer yet more advanced weapons systems, such as the Su-57E fifth-generation stealth fighter aircraft, including its production in India, accompanied by complete technology transfer. India is on the lookout for a fifth-generation fighter aircraft, and the Americans have offered a version of the F35.
Given the US's proven tendency to use its leverage to dictate policy to New Delhi and its reluctance to transfer technology, India would be inclined to opt for the Russian offer. However, India also needs to balance its relations with Russia with sound relations with the US.
If India opts for the Su-57, it would be a boost for the Russian defence industry. Russia has not been able to find major takers around the world for this fighter aircraft. If India chooses to buy Su-57s, it would boost Russia’s ability to find new takers for the warplane. For India, it would be a chance to further develop indigenous capability in advanced avionics and stealth technologies.
The third aspect of maintaining close ties with Russia, including by entering into a Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Support, which provides for the availability of airspace and ports for either nation’s craft in the other country’s facilities, India keeps alive Russia’s salience as a global power.
India cannot afford to have a bipolar hegemony of the world by the US and China, as that would leave India with very little bargaining power vis-à-vis the US, whose support it would need in the face of China’s military strength and hostile posture towards India. India has greater room for manoeuvre in a multipolar world, as compared to a bipolar one.
Cybersecurity Vs Privacy
The government recently announced two moves to improve cybersecurity, given the rising prevalence of cybercrime. One, it mandated that all encrypted communication apps, such as WhatsApp, should carry out SIM-binding. The Subscriber Information Module is normally an electronic chip that telecom carriers provide to their subscribers for insertion inside their mobile devices for voice and data connectivity. By seeking to bind every communication platform to a unique SIM and device in which the SIM is placed, the government seeks to create traceability of malign communications, such as to commit cybercrime or carry out terror attacks.
The other mandate was for all manufacturers and importers of phones to pre-install the government’s Sanchar Sathi app in a manner that prevents individual subscribers from deleting or modifying the app. Apple reportedly told the government that it would not be able to comply with the provision, even as protests mounted from citizen groups against the likelihood of the app being used for state surveillance. In the face of concerted opposition, the government has withdrawn the mandate.
While cellular operators are all for SIM-binding, the Broadband India Forum, a lobby for all major stakeholders in the internet economy, sought broader consultation on the subject. According to Parag Kar, an expert in both telecom technology and the telecom business in general, SIM-binding is technically not possible. The binding that takes place, say in the case of banking apps, is with the mobile device, which has a unique International Mobile Equipment Identity (IMEI) Number, and whose location can be tracked by cellular operators, whose networks connect to SIMs. GSMA Mobile Connect and the GSMA Open Gateway initiative permit the identification and binding of communication apps with devices with unique identity numbers and SIMs.
This raises privacy concerns, as does the Sanchar Sathi app. However, in the contemporary world, we have little choice but to accept a tradeoff between privacy and security. All kinds of malign actors make use of encrypted communication apps to plot violent attacks, carry out financial fraud and spread defamatory images. Absolute privacy would make it difficult for the state to intervene in the interest of the larger society.
The trouble is that the state in India cannot be trusted not to misuse their authority to breach citizens’ privacy. A striking feature of the Digital Personal Data Protection Act, passed in 2023, and associated rules, notified recently, is the absence of any provision to hold the state, its agencies or personnel accountable for misuse, if any, of their power to access protected digital data.
Ideally, the law should stipulate that any breach of a citizen’s right to privacy must explicitly be authorized by a judicial order, and that the state must place before a committee of Parliament a report on the findings of such breach of privacy and the action take on these findings, with the parliamentary committee being empowered to hold the personnel who sought and carried out the privacy breach to account.
Growth Conundrum
Official numbers on the Indian economy’s growth performance in the July-September quarter present a picture of rude economic health. The economy has grown, according to the data released on 28 Nov, 8.2% in real terms, and by 8.7% in nominal terms.
The steep fall in the GDP deflator, which measures the economy-wide rise in prices, could be interpreted as the vanquishing of inflation or as a sign of distress, particularly in the farm sector, whose producer prices have been flattened, like crops in the field after a hailstorm.
No Fret Over The Rupee?
The rupee’s decline against the US dollar, touching Rs 90 to the dollar, has been commented on as a cause for concern. This focus on the bilateral relationship between the rupee and the dollar ignores the fact that the real effective exchange rate of the rupee, which keeps track of the rupee’s trade-weighted exchange rate vis-à-vis a basket of currencies, factoring in the different rates of inflation in India and other economies whose currencies figure in the basket, has been far more robust than just focusing on the nominal exchange rate with the dollar would suggest.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said that he would not lose his sleep over the rupee. That is a healthy sentiment. Good night, folks!
