The Markets Stage A Late Recovery
Monday was a day of bouncers as far as tariffs went
On Episode 627 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Sheetal Sapale, VP – Commercial at Pharmarack. We also feature an excerpt from our upcoming interview with Sumit Goswami, CEO and co-founder of ARVO, part of our Build on Blockchain Series.
SHOW NOTES
(00:00) Stories of the Day
(00:50) Countries around the world are grappling with the latest Trump tariff salvo
(02:07) The markets stage a late recovery
(05:19) Cement industry fortunes are looking up
(07:54) Food costs are down annually but rising over last month
(09:43) Electric vehicle sales jumped last month
(11:23) Weight loss drugs are flying off the shelves but there are concerns too
(18:57) Build on Blockchain
NOTE: This transcript contains the host's monologue and includes interview transcripts by a machine. Human eyes have gone through the script but there might still be errors in some of the text, so please refer to the audio in case you need to clarify any part. If you want to get in touch regarding any feedback, you can drop us a message on [email protected].
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Good morning, it's Wednesday, the 9th of July and this is Govindraj Ethiraj broadcasting and streaming weekdays from Mumbai, India's financial capital
And our top stories for the day.
The stock market staged a late recovery.
Countries around the world are grappling with the latest Trump tariff salvo.
Weight loss drugs are flying off the shelves but there are concerns too.
Cement industry fortunes are looking up after a while.
Food costs are down annually but rising over last month
And electric vehicle sales jumped last month again.
The Markets Turn In A Late Recovery
Well, Monday was a day of bouncers as far as tariffs went. Several countries including quite notably South Korea and Japan, traditionally allies, got slapped with 25% tariffs so they're exposed to the United States despite hectic lobbying and negotiating by both countries amongst others.
President Donald Trump of the United States told 14 countries that they now face sharply higher tariffs from a new deadline of 1st of August. Wall Street was down on that news though Asian markets were more stable on Tuesday and India of course turned around at the last moment. India's tariff deal is still hanging as of now and the higher tariffs from the 1st of August will not combine with previously announced sectoral tariffs such as those on automobiles and steel and aluminium.
The Trump administration has left some negotiating room open once again though it's tough to see how countries like Bangladesh with a 35% slab or Thailand and Cambodia with 36% can respond and what it could be following that response unless of course the United States changes its mind. CNBC headlined its market report for Tuesday after the close of Asian markets, saying that global markets are calling Trump's bluff on tariffs. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index was up for the day while South Korea's Kospi also gained about 1.8%. Back home the indices jumped at the fag end of trade on Tuesday.
The Sensex closed 270 points higher at 83,712 and NEC Nifty 50 was up 61 points to 25,522 and in the broader markets the Nifty mid-cap 100 and the Nifty small cap 100 were both down by about 0.1 and 0.3%. Sectorally the Nifty Realty Index was the big gainer up about 1%. Nifty Bank, Financial Services, IT and Energy were also up or rather in the green. Shares of capital market stocks were down on Tuesday after the Securities and Exchange Board of India's crackdown on Jane Street Capital and that cast a shadow of gloom on the options trading market.
Both brokerages and exchanges are getting hit given that derivative trading was a key driver of their business growth. The Business Standard pointed out that stock prices of the Bombay Stock Exchange fell about 7.5% on the NSE to about 2,437 per share. Other stocks that fell were Angel One and even the depository CDSL's share price fell.
SEBI's latest study says that individual traders' net losses rose to about 105,000 crores or 12 billion dollars last financial year compared to about 75,000 crores in the previous year or that's about 9 billion dollars after accounting for transaction costs. Over 90% of traders made losses in the equity derivative segment broadly unchanged from a previous study the year before. SEBI also says that a tightening of rules for the futures and options market are starting to bear fruit.
The total number of unique traders in the futures and options segment has declined about 20% to 6.7 million it said between December 24 and May 25 compared to the same period a year ago. Individual investor turnover in equity derivatives has also dropped by 11% to about 56,000 crores compared to about 62,700 crores during the same period a year ago. Now whether this is happening because of the tightening of rules or because people have already experienced losses and therefore are slowly edging off the market or edging out of the market it's not clear at this point.
In other markets the Indian rupee was up slightly on Tuesday tracking its Asian peers as markets were looking past as Reuters says the White House's tariff letters and instead took some solace from the deadline extension to August 1st. The rupee closed at Rs. 85.69 against the US dollar up slightly from its previous lows of Rs.
85.85. Oil prices were also down having risen slightly or about 2% in the previous session and remember the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has also announced an increase that's upcoming so there's more supply in the market which could lead to prices becoming softer but at this point Brent crude futures are at about $69.46 or just under $70 a barrel. And then gold prices were down on Tuesday thanks to higher US treasury yields and those new tariff proposals from the administration. Spot gold was down about 0.2% to $3,328 per ounce and US gold futures were also down to $3,338 per ounce.
Cement Is Looking Up
Well even as we look for more macro signals on how the economy is faring right now a spot of good news for and from cement. A report from rating agency Crisil says that growth in the India cement demand will recover to about 6.5% to 7.5% this year after falling to about 5% last year.
This along with an uptick in realisations will lift operating profitability for cement companies by about Rs. 100 to a level just above the decadal average Crisil says. Moreover, healthy accruals coupled with robust balance sheets will keep the credit profiles of cement companies stable according to an analysis by rating agency Crisil of 17 cement companies accounting for about 85% of domestic sales volume.
Last year cement demand had slowed down in the first half and that was also due to a slowdown in construction activities thanks to general elections and erratic monsoons. There was a recovery in the second half leading to a final annual demand growth of about 5%. This year Crisil says cement demand will be driven by a 7 to 8% growth in rural housing which now accounts for a third of domestic demand.
So that's another point to note that rural housing is growing quite fast and rapidly whereas urban actually is not. Indeed Crisil says rural housing demand will replace infrastructure as the primary demand driver this year thanks to expectations of a rise in agricultural income on a healthy monsoon expectation. Crisil also points out that the infrastructure segment which is the second largest contributor to cement demand with a 30% share is expected to grow at a relatively slow but steady pace thanks to lesser national highway projects being awarded in the previous two fiscals and muted capital outlay growth for railways.
Interestingly Crisil says that an increasing proportion of comparatively sourced green energy in the power mix will also help bring about savings in the power and fuel costs which of course are significant for cement companies. On the other hand an extended monsoon can impact construction activity and lower infrastructure spend which can affect demand and any adverse movement in commodity and energy prices because of global geopolitical tensions may hit profitability and these are all things to be watched but as of now things are obviously looking up.
Food Prices Fall
The cost of a home-cooked vegetarian or non-vegetarian thali or a full plate meal in India has fallen by 8% and 6% respectively in June 2025. According to rating agency Crisil once again vegetarian thali prices have fallen more because of a sharp drop in vegetable prices on a high base. Crisil and individual vegetables like tomato prices fell about 24% year-on-year to 32 rupees per kilogramme last month from 42 rupees a kilogramme on June 24. Prices of potatoes and onions also fell 20% and 27% but they were on a high base so the top prices of tomatoes , onions and potatoes have all fallen which is obviously good news for the overall vegetable price basket for homes.
On the other hand, edible oil prices, which were low most of last year, are higher by 19%. This is despite a reduction in basic customs duty on crude edible oils says Crisil but of course on the other hand duties were also jacked up just before that. There's also been a 6% year-on-year increase in cooking gas cylinder prices and that limited the decline in overall thali costs says Crisil and finally along with lower vegetable prices an estimated 3% year-on-year drop in broiler prices which make up about 50% of a non-vegetarian thali's cost drove down the cost of a non-vegetarian thali.
However on the other hand prices are rising month-on-month the cost of both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis rose by 3% and 4%. The thing to note here is that month-on-month tomato prices are up quite sharply 36% thanks to an 8% decline in prices. Potato prices were also up 4% and onion prices were steady. So yes while year-on-year the numbers are looking good month-on-month it's not so encouraging so let's see how it is for the next month.
Electric Vehicle Sales Are Rising
India's electric vehicle market grew 27% year-on-year on sales in June 2025 according to data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations of FADA. FADA's president C.S. Vigneshwar credited this growth to government schemes including the PME drive scheme and increased investments in domestic EV innovation. But the fastest growing EV segment in India is of course three wheelers which makes up about 60% of EV sales by numbers.
FADA feels also that the expansion of charging infrastructure is helping build consumer confidence and of course the ecosystem is growing slowly if not steadily. 180,000 EV units were sold during June. The electric passenger vehicle segment has grown smartly with sales almost doubling to about 13,000 units compared to about 7,000 on June 24.
Cars are still small representing only about 4.4% of total EV sales which also tells you that India's EV market is largely three wheelers and two wheelers or largely two wheelers and three wheelers. Electric two-wheeler sales were up about 31% to about 105,000. So the total market is 180,000 of electric vehicle units of which two are 105,000 as of June 2025.
Electric three-wheelers are at about 60,000 units which is about 16% up and most of those are used in some kind of commercial context including mobility. An interesting segment that's growing is electric commercial vehicles from about 515 units June last year that's 2024 to 1146. Electric commercial vehicles are of course larger.
Weight Loss Drugs Are Flying Off The Shelves
Demand for weight loss drugs is zooming in India even as drug giants Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are facing off in the market with their respective drugs. This is something that we've been talking about in recent months but as we can see the acceleration is quite noteworthy.
Eli Lilly's Monjaro, launched in late March, doubled its sales in June to about 88,000 units compared to May, according to industry tracking agency PharmaRack. Between March and May Eli Lilly sold about 81,000 Monjaro units in India. The main drivers of the overall anti-obesity segment are semaglutide and tirzipatide which represent about 75% of the anti-obesity market.
Semaglutide dominates with about 66% market share. PharmaRack says earlier drugs like Audelistat restricted fat absorption while the Indian diet is more carbohydrate rich. So newer drugs are focussing on suppression of appetite, lowering of gut mobility, leading to longer feeling of fullness of stomach.
On the other hand, while anti-obesity drugs do provide the initial momentum needed in the weight loss journey, the diet balance in terms of protein intake and other vital nutrients becomes important while one is on anti-obesity drugs. I reached out to Sheetal Sapale, Vice President at Pharmarack and a frequent visitor and guest to the core report and began by asking her whether weight loss drug sales were amongst the fastest she has seen in recent times.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Sheetal Sapale: In recent years, after the SGLE-2s and DTP-4s, again, which were in the OED segment, in the anti-diabetes and the obesity segment, this is one of the fastest growing products. And the majority of the time, it happens because the market has been built very well. Awareness is good and consumption, and it's a global product, okay?
It's not that it's getting launched parallelly in India. It has already been in there globally. That's why people know about the efficacy of the product.
And that's why the pickup is very good.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And within the weight loss segment, what are the drugs that are, let's say, growing faster? And what are the other trends that you're seeing within that?
Sheetal Sapale: See, in the obesity category, anti-obesity products category, we had a molecule Orlistat, which was not a GLP-1 agonist, but it's a molecule which existed for a pretty long time, which is there. It's around 100 crore, around 70-80 crore market today. But then it did not show that type of rapid growth.
Besides Orlistat, we have Semaglutide, Dulaglutide, Terzapitide, Liraglutide, of which Semaglutide, Terzapitide are the in things because of their efficacy and a good amount of global exposure. The drugs that were available, Orlistat, which was available earlier, the mode of action was reducing the fat absorption, which the Indian diet is more carb-rich. So it did not show that type of result.
But these products that have come in the market today, the GLP-1 agonist, have two, three modes of action wherein they suppress the feeling of hunger, they reduce the gut motility because of which you keep on feeling full for a longer period of time. And this has really given that weight loss output, which is quite satisfactory. You tend to lose at least 20-30% of your weight in the initial five to six months.
And that's the reason why these drugs seem to be pretty popular. Also, in terms of consumption, while Semaglutide tablets were once a day, every day, but then the newer pens or wires that are available, it's just a once a week injection. Again, the frequency of dosing is also very convenient for the people.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And what would you say are the top brands now or the top three brands right now?
Sheetal Sapale: So the top three brands in the entire obesity segment would be the Ribensis tablets, which was launched in January 2022. After that, Monjaro, which was launched four months back. And the latest in the market is Vigovi, which has been launched, I think, two weeks back.
So these are the top selling brands in the anti-obesity segment. And these are the ones which are creating those waves in the market today.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And, you know, the point that you made about the pickup of these drugs being strong because of the global exposure, is this unusual? Because I'm assuming that we've not really bought drugs because they were popular elsewhere in the world.
And really those, we essentially bought drugs because they were prescribed to us and they were a response to local disease conditions and so on.
Sheetal Sapale: See, there are some diseases or some conditions wherein you need to take a lot of effort from your side and control many of your temptations to get better. So obesity is one such condition where a major lifestyle modification is needed. And if you remember, it's like even we used to take, if I would get a pill, which would help me to reduce my weight.
This is something which everybody dreamt of having. And that's the reason why it's an easy way out to lose your weight. This is the perception that many people have, though it may not be the best perception to have.
And that's the reason why it has become popular. Now, when SGLT-2s and DPP-4s were launched in the market, it was diabetes getting moved to a higher stage for which the existing products were not giving that type of efficacy. And that's the reason why the acceptance happened.
Whereas over here, we are not talking about diabetes. We're just talking about weight loss. Even if I may not have diabetes, I will still go to the doctor if I want to lose weight.
At least I have read so many things. Can you prescribe me either of these injections?
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. And while these are supposed to be addressing diabetes and obesity itself leads to so many other comorbidities, I know this is still early days, but do you feel that we could see some impact on other drugs which address other comorbidities arising out of obesity? I know it's a more physician question, but I'm just wondering whether there's any data for this.
Sheetal Sapale: There's no data for this as such. But if you see the way these drugs act, they suppress your hunger. And they also reduce your gut mobility.
Now, that itself causes a sort of constipation related issues. And if it is suppressing some function, which suppresses your feeling of hunger, the moment you are out of these drugs, it will again create a sort of dependence. The dependence of these drugs will increase.
I mean, when I'm talking about dependence, it becomes a sort of addiction. Without that drug, you will again go back to binge eating, probably gain more weight. Or constipation.
Constipation, again, has its own side effects. The food stays in your gut for a longer period of time, probably causing some more infections. Also, the type of diet that you consume.
Because you keep on feeling full, not necessarily you will replenish yourself with the essential nutrients that may be needed. So, those are the complications which will definitely arise over a period of time. And if you have seen the popular celebrities who have been on these injections, you will see their muscle mass.
You can see their skin, loose skin. So, basically, the muscle is not developing. There is also a loss of muscle mass that is happening.
So, these are the consequences which may come up over a period of time. And if one reads the fine print very well, these drugs do have their list of side effects. That's the reason why it's very important that these drugs are taken under strict medical supervision.
And for a time period for which they are required, beyond that time period, it's lifestyle modification and diet.
Govindraj Ethiraj: Right. That's a good note to end on. Sheetal, thank you so much for joining me.
Sheetal Sapale: Yeah. Thanks so much.
Build On Blockchain
Welcome back to a new segment of Build on Blockchain, a weekly segment where we speak to people behind building real solutions on blockchain.
And today our guest is Sumit Goswami, CEO and co-founder of Arvo. Now what Arvo does is something that we are going to get into, but here's a quick background. You may have noticed or read the papers that India's court appointed legal representatives inspected small-scale factories in recent weeks or days to seize suspected counterfeit Birkenstock footwear after Birkenstock launched an infringement lawsuit, according to reports in some of the wire agencies.
Now this is not obviously the first case, there are many other cases going on. Companies like Crocs have also got court notes to pursue an infringement case and this obviously has to do with counterfeits. The problem of counterfeits of course is not confined to India.
A lot of these counterfeits are exported from, as we understand, India is the fifth largest exporter of counterfeit goods and the total market for counterfeits runs into hundreds of billions of dollars. And therefore this is the problem. Now what is the solution or what could be the kinds of solutions and for that really it's back to you Sumit.
INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
Govindraj Ethiraj: So tell us about what Arvo does and how the product or the service or product plus service that you offer is addressing this larger challenge of counterfeits both in the Indian context as well as globally.
Sumit Goswami: Great, thank you so much Govind for having me on this podcast. It was really a pleasure talking to you, I heard a lot about you and I have seen you know most of your podcasts on different topics and it's always very interesting to listen to all of them. So yeah, good to be here, a great topic.
Counterfeiting, you know counterfeit, fake, this is something which we have been hearing for quite some time right and I'm sure each one of us as a consumer have faced it in some walk of a life or the other right, either while buying an apparel or buying a shoe, medicines, liquor, food items, automotive spare parts and many many many other things. It's a huge issue and it has been there for quite some time but unfortunately we have not been able to solve it yet and that's exactly what we at Arvo is trying to do. I personally, you know, come with over 30 years of experience in the industry. This is my third startup and I started my career with manufacturing.
So I used to sell bearings to steel plants and automotive companies and all of that and we used to face the issue of counterfeiting and to my surprise and that is 25 years back and to my surprise even now that problem is still existing and it is of the same magnitude.
Nothing much has been done to solve this and why is that, why is this the case? Is it that we are not as smart as the counterfeiters are? Is it that we are not interested in solving the problem?
So I've been seeing this and you know and I wanted to do something about it and that entrepreneurial bug always keeps biting me. Fortunately, I managed to get hold of a very enthusiastic tech person who used to work with me in the private equity firm, Duke Banerjee.
Both of us decided that let's jump into it and see what we can do and we started doing research. We started speaking to brands, we started speaking to manufacturers, you know the head of supply chain, head of operations and wanted to understand what is counterfeiting for them and why is it that they're not able to solve it. The answers were very big.
We were actually surprised. A lot of them were not even ready to accept the fact that counterfeiting exists. Second, they did admit that they had tried many solutions but those solutions were so cumbersome and so difficult to implement that they gave up and they decided to go their own way and figure out their own ways or means of tackling issues in the supply chain which ultimately leads to counterfeiting.
So this kind of insight we got from our research and after talking to so many people, we understood that it is a completely broken problem. I mean nobody has managed to solve it entirely in its entirety and the reason why this has not been done is because people have been looking at counterfeiting as either a problem of authenticity of goods or a lack of traceability but to solve the problem of counterfeiting, you need to tackle both. Both authenticity and traceability needs to be tackled.
Traceability to ensure that right at the raw material stage, when your raw material comes in to make a finished good, you are able to figure out what kind of raw material is coming in and what is the journey that it goes through and when it moves out from your plant, it goes to the distributors and the warehouses, is it secure over there or not? So if you don't have a robust traceability mechanism, you will not be able to ensure that that is done. Second is once the product moves out of the plant, goes to your warehouses and from there to the distributors and retailers, is there a mechanism to ensure that the products are authentic or not?
How would somebody know that the product is authentic or not? Putting a hologram on a package or just a barcode is not enough because that can be easily copied, it can be easily replicated. So you need something which cannot be copied and that is exactly what we came up with, a concept of digital product password, which in fact was introduced by the European Union about 2-3 years back and they are now implemented across product categories.
So we decided to implement that and we started looking at it and working on it. We are using blockchain and AI to do this.
Govindraj Ethiraj: So what's the example or product that you work with which best illustrates the entire chain that you are working on, beginning at the raw material stage and going on to distribution warehouses into the final sale point?
Sumit Goswami: Sure, so we work very closely with pharmaceutical companies. When we started this company about 3 years back, some of our initial proof-of-concept trials were with pharmaceutical companies. One of them was a very well-known government entity which actually is responsible for the Jan Ausadhi medicines that you see in the country today, which was launched by our Honourable Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi.
Now those medicines go to various Jan Ausadhi medicine centres and these are consumed by lakhs and lakhs and millions and millions of people. There were issues of counterfeiting that came across in different stores and there were complaints coming up. So the government wanted to appoint some vendors who can actually solve this problem.
Fortunately, we got selected as one of the vendors to do a trial with a few pharmaceutical companies and just see whether we are able to prevent counterfeiting or not. We did this trial, we did manage to implement our counterfeiting, anti-counterfeiting solution and the products were out in the market, the medicines were out in the market with our codes and there has been a significant drop in counterfeiting after the products have been launched in the market. So this is one proof-of-trial concept that we did.
Currently, we are also working with a very large pharmaceutical company which is a publicly listed company in India and we are tackling the entire traceability and counterfeiting issue. So basically, when you look at a pharmaceutical company, they have various raw material vendors or contract manufacturers which supply the raw materials. There are API providers from which they get the API of the ingredients of the medicines.
This comes from different players based out of different parts of the country, even maybe abroad and then when this comes, they come into various manufacturing units of the brand or the manufacturer. From there, it goes to warehouses, multiple warehouses, multiple distributors and retailers. If you look at this entire value chain, it is quite diversified and quite complicated.
Now, if you do not have a checks and balances to ensure that nothing in this entire value chain is missed, all your partners in this value chain, they follow all the process and rules, you need a very robust traceability system which tracks each and every point of the supply chain, right from the raw material coming in, getting converted into the product, the packaging of the product, the labelling of the product, going out into the warehouse quality control and every part of the process. That is what we do in terms of the traceability, that is what we have implemented. So basically, our traceability system through our unique codes which are copy proof codes are placed at each nodes of the process and whenever a product passes through these nodes, the workmen working in those processes, they capture those codes, the data gets you know, captured in our system and then the pharmaceutical company officials can see how the product is moving and where it is moving.
Once the product comes out of the manufacturing unit, it has a finished product after packaging. When it is moving to the warehouses, we do the printing of our copy proof codes on the packaging of the medicines. It could be foils or it could be packets and these codes are again copy proof codes. So, a consumer can scan the code through a simple mobile application or a mobile phone QR code scanner and he gets to know whether the medicine packet is original or not.
So, that is the level of authenticity that we provide. So, if you look at the system right from the beginning to the end, it is a combination of traceability and authenticity through which we are trying to solve the problem of counterfeiting.
